• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Fvrier 2021

Fvrier 2021 - Mars 2021 - Avril 2021 - Mai 2021 - Juin 2021 - Juillet 2021


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
27/01/2021 12Z-1 C+0.1 C+0.1 C+0.1 C-0.9 C-1.8 C+-0 C
27/01/2021 06Z+0.7 C+1.4 C+1.8 C+0.8 C-0.1 C+0.3 C+1.6 C
27/01/2021 00Z+1.6 C+1.6 C+2.2 C+1.2 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+2.1 C
26/01/2021 18Z+3.1 C+2.3 C+3 C+2.2 C+2.9 C+2.2 C+3.4 C
26/01/2021 12Z-1.3 C-0.5 C-0.9 C-0.5 C-0.6 C-2.3 C-1 C
26/01/2021 06Z+3.6 C+2.7 C+4 C+2.5 C+3.5 C+2.9 C+4.4 C
26/01/2021 00Z+2.2 C+1.8 C+2.2 C+1.2 C+2 C+1.6 C+3.4 C
25/01/2021 18Z+1.6 C+0.9 C+2.7 C+1.5 C+2.1 C+0.5 C+1.8 C
25/01/2021 12Z+0.4 C-0.2 C+0.8 C+1.2 C+1 C-1.1 C+0.7 C
25/01/2021 06Z+1.1 C+0 C+1.3 C+1.6 C+1.7 C-1.2 C+1.1 C
25/01/2021 00Z+2 C+1.3 C+2.6 C+1.7 C+2.4 C+0.6 C+2 C
24/01/2021 18Z+0 C+0.8 C+1.2 C-0.1 C-0.1 C-0.1 C+0.7 C
24/01/2021 12Z+0.6 C+0.6 C+0.9 C+1.2 C+0.9 C-0.3 C+0.5 C
24/01/2021 06Z-0.6 C+0.9 C+0.9 C-0.1 C+0.3 C-0.1 C+1 C
24/01/2021 00Z+0.2 C-0.2 C+0.1 C+0.5 C+0.5 C-1.2 C+0.4 C
23/01/2021 18Z-0.5 C+0.7 C+2 C-0.3 C-0.2 C-0.8 C-0.2 C
23/01/2021 12Z+2.7 C+2.1 C+3.1 C+2.7 C+2.7 C+1.7 C+2.8 C
23/01/2021 06Z+1.5 C+1.3 C+2 C+0.8 C+1.1 C+1 C+2.7 C
23/01/2021 00Z-2.2 C-2 C-2 C-1.5 C-1.3 C-4.5 C-2.6 C
22/01/2021 18Z-0.6 C-0.3 C-1 C+0.1 C+0.1 C-2.1 C+0.2 C
22/01/2021 12Z-2.6 C-0.6 C-0.3 C-0.4 C-2.5 C-2.5 C-1.8 C
22/01/2021 06Z+0.1 C+0.8 C+0 C+0.6 C+0.5 C-0.1 C+1.9 C
22/01/2021 00Z-3.6 C-1.2 C-3.1 C-2.6 C-2.8 C-4 C-2.9 C
21/01/2021 18Z-0.9 C-0.7 C-0.8 C-0.3 C-1.2 C-2.3 C-0.9 C
21/01/2021 12Z+0.4 C-0.2 C+0.4 C+0.3 C+0.6 C-1.6 C+0 C
21/01/2021 06Z-4 C-3 C-3.5 C-2.6 C-3.6 C-5.5 C-4.6 C
21/01/2021 00Z-2.3 C-1.4 C-1.5 C-0.8 C-2.4 C-3.1 C-2.8 C
20/01/2021 18Z+0.9 C+1 C+0.8 C+0.9 C+1.3 C+0.5 C+2 C
20/01/2021 12Z+1.3 C+1.2 C+1.3 C+1.1 C+1.9 C+0.6 C+2.1 C
20/01/2021 06Z+1.3 C+1.1 C+2 C+1.2 C+1.3 C+0.6 C+2.3 C
Moyenne+0.2 C+0.4 C+0.7 C+0.5 C+0.4 C-0.7 C+0.7 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
27/01/2021 12Z-1.7 C-0.2 C-0.8 C-1 C-2 C-1.3 C-1.7 C
27/01/2021 06Z-0.6 C+0.9 C+0.1 C-0.8 C-1.6 C+-0 C+-0 C
27/01/2021 00Z+0 C+0.6 C+0.6 C-0.7 C-0.4 C+0.9 C+1 C
26/01/2021 18Z+2 C+2.2 C+1.9 C+1.2 C+1.8 C+2.5 C+3 C
26/01/2021 12Z-2.3 C-2 C-1.6 C-1.8 C-2.4 C-2.4 C-3 C
26/01/2021 06Z+1.3 C+2.5 C+2.7 C+0.6 C+0.9 C+2.4 C+1.8 C
26/01/2021 00Z+0.4 C+0.7 C+0.2 C-0.6 C+0.2 C+1.2 C+1.6 C
25/01/2021 18Z+1.7 C-0.1 C+1.7 C+1.6 C+2.2 C+1.1 C+1.7 C
25/01/2021 12Z-1.4 C-1.2 C-0.5 C-0.7 C-1.4 C-1.1 C-1.4 C
25/01/2021 06Z+0.4 C-1.1 C-0.1 C+0.7 C+0.6 C-0.9 C-0.4 C
25/01/2021 00Z+1.6 C+1.1 C+2.1 C+2 C+1.2 C+1.1 C+0.7 C
24/01/2021 18Z-0.5 C-0.4 C-0.6 C-0.7 C-0.4 C-0.6 C-0.3 C
24/01/2021 12Z-0.6 C-0.7 C-0.9 C-0.7 C-0.6 C-0.8 C-0.8 C
24/01/2021 06Z-2 C+0.3 C-0.6 C-2.6 C-2.1 C-0.6 C-1.3 C
24/01/2021 00Z-0.5 C-0.8 C-0.6 C-0.8 C-0.4 C-0.7 C-0.6 C
23/01/2021 18Z+-0 C+1.4 C+3.2 C+1.4 C-1.2 C+0.9 C-0.9 C
23/01/2021 12Z+3.1 C+2.6 C+3.8 C+3.6 C+2.6 C+2.4 C+1.4 C
23/01/2021 06Z+1.5 C+0.7 C+2.1 C+1.4 C+0.9 C+1.4 C+1.5 C
23/01/2021 00Z-4 C-3.6 C-2.8 C-2.8 C-3.9 C-4.4 C-4.3 C
22/01/2021 18Z-2.1 C-1.4 C-2.5 C-2.4 C-1.8 C-1.9 C-1 C
22/01/2021 12Z-3.4 C-2.4 C-2.9 C-2.7 C-4.3 C-2.9 C-3.5 C
22/01/2021 06Z+0.1 C-0.2 C-0.7 C-0.8 C+0.3 C+0.2 C+1.3 C
22/01/2021 00Z-4.5 C-2.6 C-4.6 C-5.5 C-4.6 C-3.5 C-3.7 C
21/01/2021 18Z-1.2 C-2.3 C-2.4 C-1.7 C-1.4 C-1.8 C-2.1 C
21/01/2021 12Z-1.3 C-1.8 C-1.2 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-1.4 C-1 C
21/01/2021 06Z-7.2 C-5.1 C-4.8 C-5.3 C-7 C-7.1 C-7.5 C
21/01/2021 00Z-3.3 C-3.6 C-3.3 C-3.2 C-3.8 C-3.6 C-3.6 C
20/01/2021 18Z-0.5 C+-0 C-0.5 C-1.4 C-0.6 C+0.3 C+1.3 C
20/01/2021 12Z+0.9 C+0.9 C+0.9 C+0.4 C+0.6 C+1.1 C+0.9 C
20/01/2021 06Z+0.5 C-0.4 C+0.6 C-0.1 C+0.3 C+0.8 C+0.8 C
Moyenne-0.8 C-0.5 C-0.4 C-0.8 C-1 C-0.6 C-0.7 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
27/01/2021 12Z+31.1 %-8.2 %+2 %+2.3 %+22 %+67.9 %+80 %
27/01/2021 06Z+43 %+27.7 %+115.9 %+43.4 %+86.1 %+152.2 %+136.9 %
27/01/2021 00Z+70.8 %-44.4 %+125.3 %+63.2 %+56.4 %+118 %+70.8 %
26/01/2021 18Z+87.5 %+178.5 %+154.8 %+102.9 %+44.6 %+112.7 %-0.2 %
26/01/2021 12Z-7 %-44 %-25.4 %-47 %-10.7 %+21.7 %-14.4 %
26/01/2021 06Z+62.1 %-71.1 %+112.8 %+28.4 %+88.7 %+111.2 %+66 %
26/01/2021 00Z+140.8 %+37.6 %+146.2 %+37 %+80.1 %+150.5 %+67.6 %
25/01/2021 18Z-53.3 %-75.3 %-53.4 %-33 %-60 %-25.9 %-63.7 %
25/01/2021 12Z+52.5 %-20.7 %+57.2 %-4.2 %+32.2 %+39.6 %+13.5 %
25/01/2021 06Z+122.1 %-2.7 %+105.3 %+51.7 %+126.4 %+120.4 %+36.8 %
25/01/2021 00Z-23.1 %-68.6 %-31.8 %-46.2 %-25.4 %+27.1 %+0.8 %
24/01/2021 18Z-1.5 %-45.6 %+9.1 %-2.8 %+42.7 %+28 %+7.8 %
24/01/2021 12Z+58.2 %-61.7 %+18.1 %-21.6 %+24.4 %+55.2 %+47.6 %
24/01/2021 06Z+78.4 %+13.6 %+163.8 %+59.8 %+39.7 %+117.6 %+15.2 %
24/01/2021 00Z-21.9 %-57.6 %-1.5 %-44.9 %-33.2 %-5.1 %-44.7 %
23/01/2021 18Z-12.7 %+8.8 %+110.5 %+26.3 %-33.4 %+103.4 %-19.3 %
23/01/2021 12Z-12.9 %-90.9 %-46.9 %-8.4 %+3.9 %-37.6 %-5.1 %
23/01/2021 06Z+54.3 %-23.4 %+58.6 %+4.9 %+12.8 %+81.8 %+3.4 %
23/01/2021 00Z+2.9 %+1.4 %+34.5 %-58.7 %-4.4 %+73.4 %+3.6 %
22/01/2021 18Z+59.7 %+16 %+153.2 %+12.7 %+25.3 %+87.3 %+7.3 %
22/01/2021 12Z+199.5 %+1.4 %+202.9 %+100.6 %+37 %+217.4 %+72.2 %
22/01/2021 06Z+0.4 %+182.1 %+0 %+5.8 %-16.6 %+113.6 %-29.9 %
22/01/2021 00Z-0.1 %+109.5 %+110.3 %-19.8 %-24.2 %+149 %+51.3 %
21/01/2021 18Z+45.6 %+303.1 %+100.7 %-3.6 %-1.8 %+152.8 %-12.5 %
21/01/2021 12Z+47.1 %+22.9 %+146.9 %+27.4 %+24.9 %+110.6 %+23.1 %
21/01/2021 06Z+25 %-43.4 %+19.8 %-17 %+28.3 %-10.3 %-0.8 %
21/01/2021 00Z+12.2 %-58 %+36.6 %-53.4 %-13.3 %+50.9 %+5.2 %
20/01/2021 18Z+36.8 %+194.7 %+59.7 %+95.5 %+1 %+118.9 %-20.1 %
20/01/2021 12Z+10.9 %-8.3 %+80.5 %-39.3 %-0.2 %+40.1 %+22.7 %
20/01/2021 06Z+36 %+53.1 %+118.6 %+5.5 %-2.4 %+80.5 %+21.5 %
Moyenne+38.1 %+14.2 %+69.5 %+8.9 %+18.4 %+80.8 %+18.1 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
27/01/2021 12Z-5.4 hPa-7 hPa-5.5 hPa-6 hPa-4.8 hPa-6.1 hPa-6 hPa
27/01/2021 06Z-10 hPa-8 hPa-7.8 hPa-9.4 hPa-9.4 hPa-8.8 hPa-10.2 hPa
27/01/2021 00Z-10.3 hPa-6.1 hPa-8.8 hPa-12.6 hPa-10.5 hPa-7.9 hPa-8.6 hPa
26/01/2021 18Z-14.3 hPa-10.2 hPa-14.7 hPa-18.9 hPa-13.2 hPa-12 hPa-11.2 hPa
26/01/2021 12Z+0.6 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-0.2 hPa
26/01/2021 06Z-6.1 hPa-0.2 hPa-2.8 hPa-7.3 hPa-7.9 hPa-2.3 hPa-4.8 hPa
26/01/2021 00Z-12.1 hPa-8.7 hPa-10.2 hPa-12.1 hPa-11.9 hPa-10.2 hPa-11.1 hPa
25/01/2021 18Z+2.2 hPa+3.3 hPa-0.8 hPa+-0 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.1 hPa+3.3 hPa
25/01/2021 12Z+1 hPa+2.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.1 hPa-0.3 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.2 hPa
25/01/2021 06Z-4.1 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.5 hPa-2.9 hPa-5.5 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.7 hPa
25/01/2021 00Z+2.2 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.5 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.9 hPa
24/01/2021 18Z-1.9 hPa-2.7 hPa-2.9 hPa-2.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-2.6 hPa-2.2 hPa
24/01/2021 12Z-0.4 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.5 hPa-1.2 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa
24/01/2021 06Z-11.8 hPa-9 hPa-10.2 hPa-12.1 hPa-12.1 hPa-10.2 hPa-10.9 hPa
24/01/2021 00Z-0.1 hPa-2.6 hPa-1.6 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.9 hPa-2 hPa-1 hPa
23/01/2021 18Z-6.7 hPa-7.3 hPa-10 hPa-9.3 hPa-5.1 hPa-7.6 hPa-5.9 hPa
23/01/2021 12Z-0.8 hPa+1 hPa-0.8 hPa-3 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.2 hPa
23/01/2021 06Z-7.1 hPa-5.3 hPa-7.3 hPa-8.4 hPa-6 hPa-6.4 hPa-6.6 hPa
23/01/2021 00Z-0.6 hPa-3.3 hPa-1.6 hPa+1.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.8 hPa-2.1 hPa
22/01/2021 18Z-6.3 hPa-6.7 hPa-4.7 hPa-4.9 hPa-6.3 hPa-6.1 hPa-6.4 hPa
22/01/2021 12Z-11.4 hPa-10 hPa-8.9 hPa-10.8 hPa-10.3 hPa-10.6 hPa-11.1 hPa
22/01/2021 06Z-6.4 hPa-6.7 hPa-6.5 hPa-8.4 hPa-5.6 hPa-6.9 hPa-6.1 hPa
22/01/2021 00Z-8.5 hPa-11.8 hPa-10.3 hPa-6.3 hPa-6.9 hPa-10.9 hPa-9.1 hPa
21/01/2021 18Z-8.1 hPa-9.8 hPa-8.5 hPa-6.9 hPa-6.1 hPa-9.5 hPa-8 hPa
21/01/2021 12Z-8.8 hPa-6 hPa-6.9 hPa-9.1 hPa-8.9 hPa-6.8 hPa-8.1 hPa
21/01/2021 06Z-2 hPa-4.6 hPa-3.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.9 hPa
21/01/2021 00Z-2.3 hPa-5.7 hPa-2.7 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-4.7 hPa-3.6 hPa
20/01/2021 18Z-12.9 hPa-8.6 hPa-12.1 hPa-16.7 hPa-13 hPa-10.5 hPa-10.5 hPa
20/01/2021 12Z-2.4 hPa-3.4 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.2 hPa-1.6 hPa-3.4 hPa-2.9 hPa
20/01/2021 06Z-14.2 hPa-10.9 hPa-14.7 hPa-16.6 hPa-13.2 hPa-12.9 hPa-12.6 hPa
Moyenne-5.6 hPa-5 hPa-5.4 hPa-5.9 hPa-5.3 hPa-5.3 hPa-5.3 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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