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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Juin 2018

Juin 2018 - Juillet 2018 - Août 2018 - Septembre 2018 - Octobre 2018 - Novembre 2018


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/05/2018 06Z-0.8 °C+-0 °C+0.2 °C+1.5 °C-0.2 °C-2.4 °C-0.6 °C
21/05/2018 00Z-1.2 °C-1 °C-0.9 °C+1 °C-0.4 °C-2.5 °C+-0 °C
20/05/2018 18Z+2 °C+2 °C+2.6 °C+2.5 °C+2.5 °C+1.3 °C+3.9 °C
20/05/2018 12Z-2.5 °C-2.3 °C-2.1 °C+0.2 °C-1.4 °C-4.7 °C-1.9 °C
20/05/2018 06Z+1 °C+1.7 °C+1.6 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C-0.1 °C+2.1 °C
20/05/2018 00Z+0 °C+0.8 °C+0.5 °C+1 °C+0.9 °C-0.6 °C+2.5 °C
19/05/2018 18Z+1 °C+0.5 °C+0.7 °C+1.7 °C+2.4 °C-0.4 °C+2.5 °C
19/05/2018 12Z-0.9 °C-0.8 °C-1.6 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C-2.6 °C+1.1 °C
19/05/2018 06Z+1.3 °C+0.3 °C+1.1 °C+1.8 °C+1.9 °C-0.7 °C+2.5 °C
19/05/2018 00Z-0.9 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C+1.1 °C+0.2 °C-3 °C+0 °C
18/05/2018 18Z-0.8 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C+1.1 °C+0.4 °C-2.7 °C+0.1 °C
18/05/2018 12Z+1.8 °C+1 °C+1.8 °C+2.3 °C+2.5 °C+0.3 °C+3.2 °C
18/05/2018 06Z-2 °C-0.5 °C-0.7 °C+0.7 °C-1.5 °C-2.6 °C-1.2 °C
18/05/2018 00Z+0.3 °C+-0 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C+1 °C-0.8 °C+1.4 °C
17/05/2018 18Z+1.3 °C+2 °C+2.5 °C+1.6 °C+1.5 °C+0.9 °C+2.9 °C
17/05/2018 12Z+1.3 °C+0.1 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+2.6 °C-0.3 °C+3.1 °C
17/05/2018 06Z-0.7 °C-1.4 °C-1.1 °C+0.8 °C+0.1 °C-2.9 °C+0.2 °C
17/05/2018 00Z+0.1 °C-0.5 °C+0.4 °C+2.2 °C+1.2 °C-1.8 °C+1 °C
16/05/2018 18Z-1.8 °C-0.7 °C-1.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.8 °C-2.7 °C-0.3 °C
16/05/2018 12Z-1.4 °C-0.9 °C-1.1 °C+0.3 °C-0.4 °C-2.6 °C+0.2 °C
16/05/2018 06Z-1 °C-0.6 °C-0.4 °C+0.6 °C+0.1 °C-2.2 °C+0.5 °C
16/05/2018 00Z+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.6 °C+1.6 °C-0.6 °C+1.8 °C
15/05/2018 18Z-0.3 °C-1.1 °C-1.7 °C+0.8 °C+1.1 °C-2.7 °C+1.8 °C
15/05/2018 12Z+4 °C+1.2 °C+2.8 °C+4.3 °C+4.1 °C+1.9 °C+4.5 °C
15/05/2018 06Z+2.3 °C+1.7 °C+3.1 °C+3.2 °C+2.9 °C+0.3 °C+2.6 °C
15/05/2018 00Z+2.2 °C+1 °C+2.5 °C+3.3 °C+3 °C-0.2 °C+2.1 °C
14/05/2018 18Z-1.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C+1 °C-0.7 °C-1.8 °C-0.3 °C
14/05/2018 12Z-1.8 °C-1.4 °C-0.5 °C+0.8 °C-0.7 °C-3.2 °C-1 °C
14/05/2018 06Z+0.3 °C-0.3 °C+1.2 °C+2.7 °C+1.4 °C-1.9 °C+0.3 °C
14/05/2018 00Z+1.7 °C+1.5 °C+1.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.1 °C+0.4 °C+3.4 °C
Moyenne+0.1 °C+0 °C+0.5 °C+1.5 °C+1 °C-1.4 °C+1.3 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/05/2018 06Z-0.1 °C-1.7 °C-0.1 °C+1.1 °C+0 °C-1 °C-1.4 °C
21/05/2018 00Z-0.4 °C-1.8 °C-1.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.2 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C
20/05/2018 18Z+3.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+1.3 °C+3.3 °C+3.2 °C+3.7 °C
20/05/2018 12Z-2.1 °C-3.6 °C-3.2 °C-2.2 °C-1.1 °C-3.5 °C-2.4 °C
20/05/2018 06Z+2.1 °C+0.6 °C+0.8 °C+2.1 °C+2.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.8 °C
20/05/2018 00Z+0.9 °C+0.6 °C+0.1 °C-0.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+2 °C
19/05/2018 18Z+2.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+0.9 °C+3.1 °C+1.2 °C+2.6 °C
19/05/2018 12Z+0.1 °C-1.9 °C-2.4 °C-1.5 °C+1.1 °C-1.1 °C+0.9 °C
19/05/2018 06Z+2.3 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C+2 °C+3.2 °C+0.7 °C+2.1 °C
19/05/2018 00Z-0.2 °C-2.2 °C-1.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.6 °C-1.8 °C-0.3 °C
18/05/2018 18Z+0 °C-1.6 °C-1.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.1 °C-1.6 °C-0.4 °C
18/05/2018 12Z+2.9 °C+0.2 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+3.4 °C+1.9 °C+2.9 °C
18/05/2018 06Z-1.1 °C+0.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C-1.6 °C
18/05/2018 00Z+1.5 °C+0 °C+0.5 °C+0.5 °C+1.7 °C+0.6 °C+1.3 °C
17/05/2018 18Z+2.6 °C+2.1 °C+2.4 °C+1.7 °C+2.4 °C+2.5 °C+2.6 °C
17/05/2018 12Z+2.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.2 °C+3.2 °C+1.4 °C+2.8 °C
17/05/2018 06Z+0.3 °C-2.1 °C-1.4 °C-0.2 °C+0.7 °C-1.6 °C+0.1 °C
17/05/2018 00Z+1.2 °C-1.5 °C-0.1 °C+1 °C+1.7 °C-0.4 °C+0.6 °C
16/05/2018 18Z-1.4 °C-0.7 °C-2.1 °C-2.5 °C-0.8 °C-1.2 °C-0.9 °C
16/05/2018 12Z-0.8 °C-2 °C-1.2 °C-1.5 °C-0.5 °C-1 °C-0.3 °C
16/05/2018 06Z-0.3 °C-1.4 °C-1.5 °C-1.4 °C+0.2 °C-0.8 °C+0 °C
16/05/2018 00Z+1.4 °C-0.1 °C+0.6 °C+0.8 °C+1.7 °C+0.8 °C+1.3 °C
15/05/2018 18Z+0.8 °C-1.8 °C-2.3 °C-0.9 °C+1.8 °C-1 °C+1.8 °C
15/05/2018 12Z+5.2 °C+1.6 °C+2.7 °C+3.7 °C+5.7 °C+3.6 °C+4.5 °C
15/05/2018 06Z+3.2 °C+0.4 °C+2.2 °C+3.2 °C+3.6 °C+1.8 °C+2.3 °C
15/05/2018 00Z+2.9 °C-0.3 °C+1.8 °C+2.9 °C+3.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.6 °C
14/05/2018 18Z-1 °C-0.3 °C-0.5 °C-0.9 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C-0.9 °C
14/05/2018 12Z-0.9 °C-1.9 °C-1.1 °C-0.6 °C-0.4 °C-2 °C-1.3 °C
14/05/2018 06Z+1 °C-1.5 °C+0.2 °C+1.4 °C+1.5 °C-0.5 °C+-0 °C
14/05/2018 00Z+2.8 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C+1 °C+3.1 °C+2.1 °C+3.1 °C
Moyenne+1 °C-0.6 °C-0.1 °C+0.5 °C+1.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.9 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/05/2018 06Z-13.7 %+17.9 %+69 %+86.2 %-29.4 %-33.9 %-37.4 %
21/05/2018 00Z+135.4 %+111.1 %+210.1 %+64.2 %+66 %+96.4 %+39.1 %
20/05/2018 18Z+56.9 %-58.1 %+52.1 %-9.1 %-22.5 %+12.6 %-43 %
20/05/2018 12Z+11.4 %+77.4 %+69.5 %-15.1 %-2.2 %+60.2 %+6.4 %
20/05/2018 06Z+46.7 %+2.9 %+38.8 %-40.4 %-49.5 %-8.9 %-37.1 %
20/05/2018 00Z+12.3 %-44.7 %-20.4 %+72.7 %-27.3 %-10.2 %-17 %
19/05/2018 18Z+82.3 %-32.5 %+65.3 %+16.2 %+47.9 %-45.6 %-18.9 %
19/05/2018 12Z+147.6 %-38.1 %+13.7 %-18.8 %+47.7 %+73.2 %+55.2 %
19/05/2018 06Z-6.3 %-57.1 %+7.1 %-6.1 %+36.8 %-31.5 %-0.8 %
19/05/2018 00Z+15.8 %-27 %+86.9 %+57.5 %-4.7 %-33 %-7 %
18/05/2018 18Z+88.3 %-48.3 %+15 %+31.5 %+49.2 %+0.1 %-26.6 %
18/05/2018 12Z+137.8 %-16.8 %+120.9 %+70.1 %+88.5 %+66.8 %+17.1 %
18/05/2018 06Z+11.6 %-81.3 %+71.3 %-28 %-4.7 %-16 %-5.2 %
18/05/2018 00Z+68.6 %-58.9 %+57.6 %-8.9 %-13.1 %-11.7 %+16.2 %
17/05/2018 18Z+12.4 %-64.4 %-16.1 %-48.8 %-48.6 %-38.4 %-5.7 %
17/05/2018 12Z+101.7 %+109.3 %+45.7 %+67.9 %+33 %+31.9 %-12 %
17/05/2018 06Z+78.8 %-58.6 %+47.9 %-88 %+4.5 %+48.6 %+41.2 %
17/05/2018 00Z+85.7 %-5.2 %+103.8 %+29.5 %-25.9 %+44.5 %-22.4 %
16/05/2018 18Z-18.3 %-44.7 %-19.5 %-22.7 %-18.3 %-9.2 %-17.9 %
16/05/2018 12Z+91.3 %+10.5 %+144.3 %+30.3 %+23.9 %+19.6 %-16.4 %
16/05/2018 06Z+45.4 %-28 %+24.6 %+39.6 %+2.7 %-19.2 %-11.7 %
16/05/2018 00Z+1.9 %+120.8 %-8.3 %-75.9 %-8.5 %-3.2 %-45.3 %
15/05/2018 18Z+62.5 %+102.5 %+161.9 %+59.9 %-21.5 %+122.4 %+127.9 %
15/05/2018 12Z+72.6 %-80.9 %+161.3 %-3 %+4.7 %-0.4 %-40.8 %
15/05/2018 06Z-15.6 %-8.6 %+13.1 %-91.6 %-69.8 %+16.2 %-22.5 %
15/05/2018 00Z+24.8 %-8.3 %+71.2 %-2.7 %-35.3 %+20.8 %-44.5 %
14/05/2018 18Z-10.8 %-74 %+8.2 %-36.7 %+3.9 %-19 %+44.1 %
14/05/2018 12Z+12.2 %-64.1 %-24.9 %-6.7 %+8.3 %-41.7 %-3.4 %
14/05/2018 06Z+28.7 %-74 %+10.1 %+0.8 %-34 %+12 %-2.4 %
14/05/2018 00Z+38.7 %-17.9 %+64.8 %-51.8 %-26.9 %+52.8 %+0.7 %
Moyenne+46.9 %-14.6 %+54.8 %+2.4 %-0.8 %+11.9 %-3 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/05/2018 06Z+0.4 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.6 hPa
21/05/2018 00Z-2.1 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.9 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.9 hPa-2 hPa
20/05/2018 18Z+0.5 hPa+1.8 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.3 hPa+1 hPa+1.4 hPa
20/05/2018 12Z-2.8 hPa-2.9 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.4 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.4 hPa
20/05/2018 06Z+1.2 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+2.3 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.4 hPa
20/05/2018 00Z-1.6 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.9 hPa-2.9 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.5 hPa
19/05/2018 18Z-1.6 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.8 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.1 hPa
19/05/2018 12Z-2.7 hPa-2.6 hPa-2.1 hPa-2 hPa-2.7 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.5 hPa
19/05/2018 06Z+2.1 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.9 hPa+3 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.3 hPa
19/05/2018 00Z-2.3 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-2.7 hPa-2.2 hPa-2.6 hPa-2.7 hPa
18/05/2018 18Z-0.7 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.1 hPa-1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa
18/05/2018 12Z-2.4 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.9 hPa
18/05/2018 06Z+0.5 hPa-1.6 hPa-0.5 hPa+1 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.5 hPa
18/05/2018 00Z-1.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.5 hPa-1 hPa-0.3 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.9 hPa
17/05/2018 18Z+1.5 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.6 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.2 hPa+0.6 hPa+1 hPa
17/05/2018 12Z-2.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.5 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.2 hPa
17/05/2018 06Z-0.1 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.2 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.7 hPa
17/05/2018 00Z-0.1 hPa-1.3 hPa-2.1 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.9 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.6 hPa
16/05/2018 18Z+0.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.1 hPa
16/05/2018 12Z-1.9 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.6 hPa-2.8 hPa-2.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.1 hPa
16/05/2018 06Z-2.1 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.3 hPa-2 hPa-1.9 hPa
16/05/2018 00Z+1.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.6 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.1 hPa
15/05/2018 18Z-3.4 hPa-4 hPa-2.1 hPa-2 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.1 hPa-5.4 hPa
15/05/2018 12Z+0.2 hPa+1.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.6 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.8 hPa
15/05/2018 06Z+2.9 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.2 hPa+3.1 hPa+4 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.1 hPa
15/05/2018 00Z+1.4 hPa+1.5 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.5 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.1 hPa
14/05/2018 18Z+0.7 hPa-0.9 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.1 hPa+0 hPa
14/05/2018 12Z+0.4 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.6 hPa+-0 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa
14/05/2018 06Z+0.2 hPa-0.9 hPa-2.1 hPa-0.8 hPa+1 hPa-0.9 hPa+-0 hPa
14/05/2018 00Z+0.4 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.2 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.9 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.3 hPa
Moyenne-0.4 hPa-1 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.7 hPa+-0 hPa-0.8 hPa-0.7 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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