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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Février 2019

Février 2019 - Mars 2019 - Avril 2019 - Mai 2019 - Juin 2019 - Juillet 2019


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/01/2019 06Z-3.8 °C-2.9 °C-3.3 °C-1.3 °C-2.9 °C-5.4 °C-5.5 °C
22/01/2019 00Z-1.2 °C-1.2 °C-1.2 °C+0.8 °C-0.4 °C-3.3 °C-2.3 °C
21/01/2019 18Z-2.7 °C-0.9 °C-1.6 °C-1.9 °C-2.2 °C-3.4 °C-1.7 °C
21/01/2019 12Z+1 °C+0.7 °C+1.5 °C+0.8 °C+1.3 °C+-0 °C+1.9 °C
21/01/2019 06Z+2.4 °C+0.9 °C+2.4 °C+1.8 °C+2.8 °C+0.3 °C+1.8 °C
21/01/2019 00Z+2.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.8 °C+1.9 °C+2.5 °C+0 °C+2 °C
20/01/2019 18Z+2.2 °C+2.2 °C+1.5 °C+1.6 °C+2.8 °C+2.1 °C+4.2 °C
20/01/2019 12Z-1.3 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C-0.8 °C-2.2 °C-0.3 °C
20/01/2019 06Z+0.2 °C+0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+1 °C-0.6 °C+1.1 °C
20/01/2019 00Z+1.4 °C+0.5 °C+1.3 °C+1.6 °C+2.2 °C-0.1 °C+1.2 °C
19/01/2019 18Z+2.4 °C+1.7 °C+1.9 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+0.9 °C+3.1 °C
19/01/2019 12Z+0.5 °C+1 °C+2 °C+1.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C
19/01/2019 06Z+1 °C+1.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C+1 °C+2.3 °C
19/01/2019 00Z-3.6 °C-0.8 °C-1.3 °C-0.9 °C-3 °C-2.9 °C-1.7 °C
18/01/2019 18Z+0.9 °C+1.2 °C+2.4 °C+1.6 °C+0.8 °C+0.3 °C+1.1 °C
18/01/2019 12Z-2.3 °C-1.2 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-2.2 °C-3.3 °C-1.4 °C
18/01/2019 06Z+0.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.7 °C+0.6 °C-1.6 °C+0.8 °C
18/01/2019 00Z+1.8 °C+1.3 °C+1.6 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C+1 °C+2.5 °C
17/01/2019 18Z+0.2 °C-0.5 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C-2.1 °C+0.1 °C
17/01/2019 12Z-0.7 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C-3.7 °C-0.5 °C
17/01/2019 06Z+0.6 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C-0.5 °C+1 °C
17/01/2019 00Z+1.6 °C+1 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.6 °C-0.6 °C+1 °C
16/01/2019 18Z+0 °C-0.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.9 °C+0.8 °C-1.6 °C+0.9 °C
16/01/2019 12Z-1.7 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-3.1 °C-1.2 °C
16/01/2019 06Z-3.6 °C-2.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.4 °C-3.3 °C-4.9 °C-4.2 °C
16/01/2019 00Z-4.7 °C-3 °C-4.2 °C-2.6 °C-3.5 °C-5.9 °C-3.4 °C
15/01/2019 18Z-1.6 °C-0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C-1.6 °C-2.5 °C-0.3 °C
15/01/2019 12Z+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C+1.9 °C+-0 °C+1.3 °C
15/01/2019 06Z+0.3 °C+0 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C+0.8 °C-1.3 °C+0.9 °C
15/01/2019 00Z-0.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.3 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C-2.1 °C-0.4 °C
Moyenne-0.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.2 °C-1.5 °C+0.2 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/01/2019 06Z-4.6 °C-4.9 °C-4.7 °C-4 °C-4.6 °C-5.7 °C-5.3 °C
22/01/2019 00Z-0.3 °C-2.1 °C-1.3 °C-0.5 °C-0.1 °C-1.3 °C-0.6 °C
21/01/2019 18Z-2.6 °C-2.5 °C-2.9 °C-3.4 °C-2.4 °C-2.5 °C-2.1 °C
21/01/2019 12Z+0 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C-1.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.6 °C+1.3 °C
21/01/2019 06Z+1 °C-0.4 °C+1.4 °C+0.7 °C+1.3 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C
21/01/2019 00Z+0.8 °C-0.2 °C+0.8 °C-0.2 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C
20/01/2019 18Z+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+0.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.7 °C+1.7 °C+2.8 °C
20/01/2019 12Z-2.7 °C-2.4 °C-2.9 °C-3.3 °C-2.8 °C-2.3 °C-1.6 °C
20/01/2019 06Z+0.6 °C-2.1 °C-1.4 °C-0.5 °C+1.6 °C-0.7 °C+0.9 °C
20/01/2019 00Z+0.4 °C-0.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C
19/01/2019 18Z+1.3 °C+1 °C+0.6 °C+0.2 °C+1.2 °C+1.6 °C+2.3 °C
19/01/2019 12Z+1.4 °C+0 °C+1.1 °C+1.1 °C+0.8 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C
19/01/2019 06Z+0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C-0.2 °C+0.2 °C+1 °C+1.4 °C
19/01/2019 00Z-2.6 °C-2 °C-2.6 °C-3.1 °C-2.6 °C-2.6 °C-2.5 °C
18/01/2019 18Z+0.7 °C+0.7 °C+1.3 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+1.4 °C+0.7 °C
18/01/2019 12Z-2.8 °C-2.7 °C-2.8 °C-3.1 °C-2.8 °C-2.9 °C-2.8 °C
18/01/2019 06Z-0.9 °C-1 °C-1.1 °C-1.6 °C-0.9 °C-1 °C-0.5 °C
18/01/2019 00Z+1.3 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.2 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+2.4 °C
17/01/2019 18Z-0.7 °C-2.1 °C-1.2 °C-1.3 °C-0.6 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C
17/01/2019 12Z-2.9 °C-2.1 °C-2.7 °C-2.8 °C-3 °C-3 °C-2.5 °C
17/01/2019 06Z-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-1.3 °C-1.4 °C-0.6 °C-0.8 °C-0.1 °C
17/01/2019 00Z+0.6 °C-0.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.8 °C+1.2 °C
16/01/2019 18Z-1.4 °C-2 °C-2.2 °C-1.7 °C-1.5 °C-2.1 °C-1 °C
16/01/2019 12Z-2.5 °C-1.8 °C-2.6 °C-3 °C-2.8 °C-2.4 °C-2.8 °C
16/01/2019 06Z-3.9 °C-2.1 °C-2.3 °C-4.1 °C-4.2 °C-3.3 °C-3.3 °C
16/01/2019 00Z-6.4 °C-5 °C-6.4 °C-6.1 °C-6.1 °C-5.7 °C-5.2 °C
15/01/2019 18Z-1.2 °C-1.1 °C-2.3 °C-3.2 °C-1.1 °C-1.2 °C-0.7 °C
15/01/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C-0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C
15/01/2019 06Z-1.9 °C-1.9 °C-2 °C-2 °C-2 °C-1.9 °C-1.7 °C
15/01/2019 00Z-1.7 °C-2.3 °C-2 °C-1.6 °C-1.8 °C-2 °C-2.5 °C
Moyenne-1 °C-1.3 °C-1.2 °C-1.6 °C-1 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/01/2019 06Z-7.5 %-68.4 %-0.5 %-39.6 %-19.4 %+19.9 %+16.6 %
22/01/2019 00Z-11.4 %-17.1 %-21.2 %-17.9 %-22.7 %-40.1 %-69.5 %
21/01/2019 18Z-13.6 %+68.8 %+29.7 %-9.9 %-54.9 %+29 %-25 %
21/01/2019 12Z+153 %-12.9 %+124.9 %+106.3 %+67 %+88.2 %+45 %
21/01/2019 06Z+72.6 %+2.4 %+51.6 %+56 %+77.2 %+64.1 %+42.3 %
21/01/2019 00Z+160.9 %+141.9 %+170.6 %+70.4 %+103 %+133.4 %+20.9 %
20/01/2019 18Z+115.3 %+170 %+70.6 %+77.9 %+93.2 %+118.3 %+12.8 %
20/01/2019 12Z+48.8 %+40.7 %+144.2 %+61.9 %-12.7 %+26.2 %-31.5 %
20/01/2019 06Z+9.7 %+71 %+4.5 %+26.2 %-13.5 %+13.6 %-47.5 %
20/01/2019 00Z-40.4 %-34 %-10 %-12.1 %-52.5 %+4.5 %-12.8 %
19/01/2019 18Z+56.9 %+161.4 %+122.2 %+61.9 %+36 %+141 %+2.8 %
19/01/2019 12Z+136.8 %+151.9 %+81.6 %+46.5 %+40.8 %+45.6 %-24.1 %
19/01/2019 06Z-33.9 %+179.2 %-7 %-7.9 %-43.6 %-6.4 %-62.2 %
19/01/2019 00Z+66.9 %-47.1 %+54.8 %+3.5 %+35 %+57 %+7.4 %
18/01/2019 18Z+48.9 %+13.9 %+131.2 %+44.5 %+19.2 %+65.8 %+16.9 %
18/01/2019 12Z+33 %+30.8 %+9.6 %+26 %+33.9 %+91.7 %+3.7 %
18/01/2019 06Z+131.8 %+38.5 %+124.6 %+104.5 %+71.7 %+97.9 %+14.5 %
18/01/2019 00Z+39.4 %+166.8 %+63.1 %+33 %+7.6 %+73.2 %-20.6 %
17/01/2019 18Z+33.8 %+17.3 %+102.5 %+110.4 %-6.3 %+47.9 %-46.9 %
17/01/2019 12Z+78.2 %-31.9 %+8.4 %+8.4 %+107.7 %+66.7 %+55 %
17/01/2019 06Z+22.1 %-35.8 %+6.7 %-1.2 %+16.8 %+7.3 %-23.3 %
17/01/2019 00Z+18 %+340.3 %+68.2 %+22.9 %-17.9 %+58.9 %-39.5 %
16/01/2019 18Z+64.2 %+86.9 %+49.6 %+74.1 %+61.6 %+46.4 %-15.5 %
16/01/2019 12Z-10.1 %+90.9 %+104.5 %-17.2 %-5.1 %+48.9 %-51.7 %
16/01/2019 06Z+75.6 %+32.5 %+99.7 %-2.7 %+23.8 %+65.3 %-8 %
16/01/2019 00Z-1.1 %+61.9 %+28.7 %+0.7 %-5.9 %+76.4 %-6 %
15/01/2019 18Z-13.4 %+218.1 %+20.8 %+17.5 %-26.2 %-3.9 %-62.5 %
15/01/2019 12Z-2.3 %+55.3 %+47.2 %-7.4 %-20.9 %+36.8 %-35.4 %
15/01/2019 06Z+83.3 %+9.5 %+49.2 %+86.6 %+111.9 %+84.3 %+11.6 %
15/01/2019 00Z+72.6 %+25 %+159.6 %+14 %+33.3 %+186.5 %+22.6 %
Moyenne+46.3 %+64.3 %+63 %+31.2 %+21.3 %+58.1 %-10.3 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/01/2019 06Z+2 hPa-0.6 hPa+2.5 hPa+4 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.2 hPa
22/01/2019 00Z+3.7 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.3 hPa+3.4 hPa+4.5 hPa
21/01/2019 18Z-9.5 hPa-9.9 hPa-12 hPa-10.8 hPa-7.5 hPa-9.9 hPa-8.2 hPa
21/01/2019 12Z-7.3 hPa-2.7 hPa-6.4 hPa-9.3 hPa-7.1 hPa-4.7 hPa-5.3 hPa
21/01/2019 06Z-3.2 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.2 hPa-4.1 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.9 hPa
21/01/2019 00Z-10.8 hPa-4.4 hPa-7.4 hPa-12.4 hPa-11.7 hPa-6.2 hPa-8 hPa
20/01/2019 18Z-11.1 hPa-6.1 hPa-9.3 hPa-14.6 hPa-11.8 hPa-8.4 hPa-8.9 hPa
20/01/2019 12Z-17.2 hPa-14.7 hPa-16.3 hPa-18.4 hPa-16.5 hPa-15.4 hPa-15.5 hPa
20/01/2019 06Z-2.8 hPa-1.1 hPa-3.9 hPa-4.7 hPa-2 hPa-2 hPa-0.9 hPa
20/01/2019 00Z+2.2 hPa+2.6 hPa+0.3 hPa+1 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.1 hPa+2.5 hPa
19/01/2019 18Z-15.7 hPa-12.4 hPa-14.7 hPa-17.9 hPa-15 hPa-13.7 hPa-14 hPa
19/01/2019 12Z-6.7 hPa-4.7 hPa-8.2 hPa-9 hPa-4.9 hPa-6.1 hPa-4.1 hPa
19/01/2019 06Z-6.7 hPa-6.4 hPa-10 hPa-10.7 hPa-5.1 hPa-7.2 hPa-5 hPa
19/01/2019 00Z-3.8 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.8 hPa-3.2 hPa-3.6 hPa
18/01/2019 18Z-8 hPa-4.3 hPa-7.9 hPa-11.2 hPa-7.6 hPa-6 hPa-5.7 hPa
18/01/2019 12Z-4.1 hPa-3.7 hPa-4.2 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.2 hPa-3.8 hPa-3.7 hPa
18/01/2019 06Z-12.4 hPa-7.1 hPa-10.3 hPa-14.5 hPa-12.8 hPa-8.6 hPa-9.8 hPa
18/01/2019 00Z-13.8 hPa-10.6 hPa-14.4 hPa-16.9 hPa-12.3 hPa-12.1 hPa-11.6 hPa
17/01/2019 18Z-12.6 hPa-9.3 hPa-11.3 hPa-14.6 hPa-12.6 hPa-10 hPa-10.2 hPa
17/01/2019 12Z-8.5 hPa-7.1 hPa-5.8 hPa-7.4 hPa-9.4 hPa-6.5 hPa-8.7 hPa
17/01/2019 06Z+0 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.6 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.3 hPa
17/01/2019 00Z-8.6 hPa-5.7 hPa-9.9 hPa-12.5 hPa-7.1 hPa-6.8 hPa-5.7 hPa
16/01/2019 18Z-2.6 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.1 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.8 hPa
16/01/2019 12Z-7.6 hPa-9.2 hPa-8.5 hPa-6.8 hPa-7.1 hPa-8.3 hPa-7.3 hPa
16/01/2019 06Z-4.7 hPa-4.9 hPa-5.3 hPa-4.9 hPa-3.8 hPa-4.4 hPa-3.6 hPa
16/01/2019 00Z-5.7 hPa-8.4 hPa-6.1 hPa-3.7 hPa-4.8 hPa-7.4 hPa-7.3 hPa
15/01/2019 18Z-11.3 hPa-12.1 hPa-13.6 hPa-12.9 hPa-9.1 hPa-11.8 hPa-10.1 hPa
15/01/2019 12Z-2.3 hPa-1.6 hPa-3.2 hPa-4.6 hPa-1.6 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.3 hPa
15/01/2019 06Z-5.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-2 hPa-5.5 hPa-6.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.3 hPa
15/01/2019 00Z-3.3 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-3.5 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.6 hPa
Moyenne-6.6 hPa-5 hPa-6.4 hPa-7.7 hPa-6.2 hPa-5.5 hPa-5.4 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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