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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Mars 2020

Mars 2020 - Avril 2020 - Mai 2020 - Juin 2020 - Juillet 2020 - Août 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/02/2020 00Z-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C+0.1 °C+-0 °C-2.2 °C-0.7 °C
20/02/2020 18Z+0.2 °C+0.2 °C+1 °C+0.6 °C+0.5 °C-0.8 °C+0.2 °C
20/02/2020 12Z-1 °C-1.1 °C-0.2 °C+-0 °C-0.4 °C-3.2 °C-1.4 °C
20/02/2020 06Z-2.3 °C-2.4 °C-2.5 °C-1.2 °C-1.5 °C-4.6 °C-2.5 °C
20/02/2020 00Z+0.7 °C-0.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C-1.5 °C+0.2 °C
19/02/2020 18Z+2.9 °C+1.7 °C+2.7 °C+1.8 °C+2.9 °C+2 °C+3.2 °C
19/02/2020 12Z-2.8 °C-0.8 °C-1.1 °C-1.5 °C-2.7 °C-2.5 °C-2.3 °C
19/02/2020 06Z-1.4 °C-1.2 °C-0.8 °C-0.3 °C-0.9 °C-3.3 °C-1.5 °C
19/02/2020 00Z-1.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.6 °C-1.4 °C+0 °C
18/02/2020 18Z+2 °C+1.5 °C+1.8 °C+1.1 °C+2.2 °C+1.3 °C+3.8 °C
18/02/2020 12Z+0.5 °C-0.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+1.2 °C-1 °C+1.6 °C
18/02/2020 06Z+2.2 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+1 °C+2.8 °C+1 °C+3.6 °C
18/02/2020 00Z-0.7 °C+0.1 °C+1.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.2 °C-1 °C+0.6 °C
17/02/2020 18Z+1.4 °C+0.7 °C+1.9 °C+0.8 °C+1.6 °C+0.7 °C+1.9 °C
17/02/2020 12Z+2.2 °C+0.9 °C+2.2 °C+1 °C+2.5 °C+0.9 °C+2.8 °C
17/02/2020 06Z+1.9 °C+1.3 °C+2.7 °C+1.9 °C+2.5 °C+1.4 °C+2.3 °C
17/02/2020 00Z+2.9 °C+1.9 °C+3 °C+1.4 °C+3.1 °C+2.4 °C+3.5 °C
16/02/2020 18Z-0.9 °C-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.3 °C-2.5 °C-0.3 °C
16/02/2020 12Z+1.2 °C+0.6 °C+2.1 °C+1.3 °C+1.6 °C+0.3 °C+2.1 °C
16/02/2020 06Z+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C-0.6 °C+1 °C
16/02/2020 00Z+0.5 °C+1.2 °C+2 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C+0.3 °C+1.4 °C
15/02/2020 18Z+3.9 °C+2.7 °C+3.3 °C+2.1 °C+4.6 °C+3.1 °C+5.5 °C
15/02/2020 12Z+1.5 °C+1.7 °C+1.5 °C+1.6 °C+2 °C+0.7 °C+2.2 °C
15/02/2020 06Z-0.7 °C-0.7 °C+0.2 °C-0.6 °C-0.3 °C-1.7 °C-0.3 °C
15/02/2020 00Z-0.1 °C+0.2 °C+1 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C-1.7 °C-0.9 °C
14/02/2020 18Z+2.3 °C+1.6 °C+3 °C+1.7 °C+2.2 °C+1.6 °C+3.2 °C
14/02/2020 12Z+0.6 °C+1 °C+2.2 °C+1 °C+0.7 °C-0.2 °C+0.6 °C
14/02/2020 06Z+2.1 °C+0.7 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.5 °C+0.7 °C+2.8 °C
14/02/2020 00Z+0.3 °C-0.4 °C+1 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C-1.2 °C+1 °C
13/02/2020 18Z+2.6 °C+1.8 °C+3.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.5 °C+2 °C+3.4 °C
Moyenne+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.1 °C-0.4 °C+1.2 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/02/2020 00Z-1.3 °C-2.7 °C-1 °C+0.1 °C-1 °C-2.7 °C-2.5 °C
20/02/2020 18Z-0.3 °C-1 °C+0.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.7 °C-0.1 °C-0.9 °C
20/02/2020 12Z-2 °C-3.2 °C-1.7 °C-1.4 °C-1.8 °C-3.1 °C-2.6 °C
20/02/2020 06Z-5 °C-5.3 °C-5.6 °C-4 °C-4.6 °C-5.4 °C-4.5 °C
20/02/2020 00Z-0.6 °C-2.3 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C-0.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C
19/02/2020 18Z+2.6 °C+1.3 °C+2.2 °C+1.6 °C+2.4 °C+2.4 °C+2.9 °C
19/02/2020 12Z-2.5 °C-2.5 °C-2.1 °C-2.3 °C-3.1 °C-2 °C-2.8 °C
19/02/2020 06Z-2.7 °C-2.7 °C-2.6 °C-2.9 °C-2.5 °C-2.8 °C-2.3 °C
19/02/2020 00Z-1.2 °C-1.9 °C-1.1 °C-1.6 °C-0.9 °C-0.9 °C-0.8 °C
18/02/2020 18Z+1.6 °C+2.2 °C+2 °C+0.6 °C+1.5 °C+2.5 °C+3 °C
18/02/2020 12Z-0.4 °C-1.5 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C+0.2 °C-1 °C+0.2 °C
18/02/2020 06Z+2.5 °C+0.1 °C+1.5 °C+0.2 °C+2.7 °C+2.1 °C+3.5 °C
18/02/2020 00Z-1.2 °C-1.5 °C-0.1 °C-0.7 °C-1.7 °C-0.3 °C-0.5 °C
17/02/2020 18Z+1.5 °C-0.2 °C+1.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.5 °C+0.9 °C+1 °C
17/02/2020 12Z+2.3 °C-0.3 °C+1.7 °C+0.9 °C+2.6 °C+1.5 °C+2.6 °C
17/02/2020 06Z+3.6 °C+0.3 °C+2.7 °C+2.8 °C+3.8 °C+2.6 °C+3.3 °C
17/02/2020 00Z+3.1 °C+1.2 °C+2.6 °C+1 °C+3.1 °C+3.5 °C+3.6 °C
16/02/2020 18Z-2 °C-2.6 °C-1.6 °C-2.2 °C-1.9 °C-2.1 °C-1.2 °C
16/02/2020 12Z+0.8 °C-0.1 °C+1.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+0.4 °C+1.2 °C
16/02/2020 06Z+0.9 °C-0.3 °C+1 °C+0.4 °C+0.7 °C+0.7 °C+1.1 °C
16/02/2020 00Z+0.1 °C+1 °C+1.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.7 °C+0.8 °C+0.3 °C
15/02/2020 18Z+4 °C+3.4 °C+3.4 °C+2.1 °C+4.3 °C+4.6 °C+5.1 °C
15/02/2020 12Z+1.6 °C+2 °C+2 °C+1.3 °C+1.3 °C+2.1 °C+1.8 °C
15/02/2020 06Z-2 °C-2.4 °C-1.9 °C-2.1 °C-1.5 °C-1.2 °C-1.3 °C
15/02/2020 00Z+-0 °C-0.4 °C+1.7 °C+2 °C-0.1 °C-1 °C-2.1 °C
14/02/2020 18Z+2.9 °C+1 °C+2.1 °C+2.2 °C+3 °C+2.3 °C+2.6 °C
14/02/2020 12Z+0.9 °C+0.6 °C+1.9 °C+1.3 °C+0.5 °C+1.1 °C+0 °C
14/02/2020 06Z+1.7 °C+0.8 °C+1.8 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C+1.8 °C+2 °C
14/02/2020 00Z+0.7 °C-2 °C+0.5 °C+0.2 °C+0.8 °C-0.5 °C+0.6 °C
13/02/2020 18Z+2.6 °C+1.5 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.1 °C+2.9 °C+3.1 °C
Moyenne+0.4 °C-0.6 °C+0.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/02/2020 00Z+31.4 %-42.3 %+53.8 %-13 %-6.9 %+2.5 %-35.6 %
20/02/2020 18Z+10.5 %-67 %+25.4 %-40.6 %-17.6 %+21.2 %-13.1 %
20/02/2020 12Z+53.1 %-80.4 %-14.1 %-27.2 %+43.5 %+61.1 %+47.7 %
20/02/2020 06Z+34.8 %-38.8 %-5.6 %-34 %+28.4 %+67.8 %+28.9 %
20/02/2020 00Z+94.5 %-14.5 %+87.5 %+34.2 %+63.1 %+137 %+33.4 %
19/02/2020 18Z+35.2 %-8.5 %+5.6 %-43.8 %-7.6 %+14.1 %+1.2 %
19/02/2020 12Z-59.6 %+145.9 %-8.3 %-44.5 %-60.8 %-31.2 %-64.6 %
19/02/2020 06Z+152.7 %+16.5 %+212.9 %+49.1 %+76.1 %+170.8 %+68.8 %
19/02/2020 00Z-30 %+12.9 %-15.1 %-61.6 %-66.7 %-8.3 %-21.8 %
18/02/2020 18Z+75.7 %+81.2 %+71.1 %+19 %+39.1 %-8.7 %-12.4 %
18/02/2020 12Z+55.6 %+27.1 %+53.5 %+52.1 %+50 %+34 %-18.4 %
18/02/2020 06Z+1.9 %+52.6 %+12.3 %+21.3 %+3 %-29.2 %-56.9 %
18/02/2020 00Z-66.3 %+49.8 %-54.3 %-66.3 %-64.5 %-27.1 %-63.6 %
17/02/2020 18Z-18.9 %+29.1 %-29.4 %-11.7 %-40.2 %-6.3 %-31.5 %
17/02/2020 12Z+1.7 %+162 %+2.1 %+23.4 %-54.7 %+9 %-76 %
17/02/2020 06Z-72.5 %-97.4 %-83.8 %-89.9 %-80.8 %-87.6 %-85.3 %
17/02/2020 00Z-61.5 %-7.8 %-30.3 %-45.1 %-59.3 %-85.6 %-63.6 %
16/02/2020 18Z+74.7 %+137.5 %+143.1 %+89.2 %+23.1 %+117.7 %+3.1 %
16/02/2020 12Z-10.6 %-18.8 %-41.1 %-31.4 %-12.1 %-14.8 %-3.4 %
16/02/2020 06Z+22.4 %-80.1 %+37.8 %-0.6 %-14.1 %-8.1 %-54.7 %
16/02/2020 00Z+198 %+24.6 %+76.5 %+48.9 %+89 %+110.2 %+134.2 %
15/02/2020 18Z-4.3 %-15.8 %+2.7 %+5.1 %-58.4 %+3.4 %-43.8 %
15/02/2020 12Z-22.2 %-88.2 %-46 %-47.5 %-4.2 %-49.6 %-39.2 %
15/02/2020 06Z-18.8 %-47.9 %+2.2 %-8.2 %-19 %-7.8 %-42.8 %
15/02/2020 00Z-65.7 %-98.2 %-99.2 %-78.3 %-64.5 %-87.8 %-48.5 %
14/02/2020 18Z-1.1 %-43.2 %-31.6 %-33.1 %-43.2 %-25 %-48.3 %
14/02/2020 12Z-6.3 %-17.7 %+7.5 %-50.1 %-10.6 %-12.2 %+9.4 %
14/02/2020 06Z+15.7 %-24 %-8.7 %-13.4 %+23 %+18.5 %-37 %
14/02/2020 00Z+96.4 %-32.6 %+20.3 %+44.7 %+56.6 %+33.6 %+1 %
13/02/2020 18Z-4 %+110.1 %-43.3 %-38 %-28.1 %-52.3 %-64.8 %
Moyenne+17.1 %+0.9 %+10.1 %-13 %-7.3 %+8.6 %-19.9 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/02/2020 00Z+4.1 hPa+3 hPa+2.8 hPa+4.6 hPa+4.6 hPa+3.3 hPa+3.8 hPa
20/02/2020 18Z+0.9 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.8 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.5 hPa
20/02/2020 12Z+2.7 hPa+2.5 hPa+4.2 hPa+4.4 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.3 hPa+2.1 hPa
20/02/2020 06Z+3.1 hPa-0.5 hPa+4.4 hPa+6.1 hPa+2.9 hPa+1.5 hPa+0.9 hPa
20/02/2020 00Z-4.5 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.3 hPa-4.7 hPa-6.1 hPa-1.3 hPa-3.2 hPa
19/02/2020 18Z+1.7 hPa+2.9 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.4 hPa+2 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.2 hPa
19/02/2020 12Z-2.3 hPa-6.8 hPa-7.1 hPa-2.7 hPa+0.7 hPa-6.3 hPa-2.4 hPa
19/02/2020 06Z-11.3 hPa-8.3 hPa-7 hPa-9.4 hPa-12.1 hPa-8.8 hPa-10.8 hPa
19/02/2020 00Z+1.5 hPa-1.6 hPa-3 hPa+1.9 hPa+3.8 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.6 hPa
18/02/2020 18Z-2.6 hPa+0 hPa-2.8 hPa-4.6 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.6 hPa
18/02/2020 12Z-0.1 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.2 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.8 hPa
18/02/2020 06Z-4.6 hPa-1.8 hPa-5.6 hPa-6.3 hPa-4.6 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.5 hPa
18/02/2020 00Z+1.4 hPa+0.1 hPa-3.3 hPa-0.9 hPa+3.5 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.8 hPa
17/02/2020 18Z+1.6 hPa+1.8 hPa-0.9 hPa+0.2 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.2 hPa
17/02/2020 12Z+0.8 hPa+1.8 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.8 hPa+3 hPa+0.4 hPa+2.3 hPa
17/02/2020 06Z+9.6 hPa+8.5 hPa+5.8 hPa+8.5 hPa+11 hPa+7.8 hPa+9.7 hPa
17/02/2020 00Z-0.5 hPa-0.6 hPa-4.2 hPa-2.3 hPa+0.8 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.4 hPa
16/02/2020 18Z-5.9 hPa-4.6 hPa-5.8 hPa-6.9 hPa-5.5 hPa-5.2 hPa-5.3 hPa
16/02/2020 12Z+0.2 hPa+0.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa
16/02/2020 06Z-3.2 hPa-2.5 hPa-4.7 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.5 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.6 hPa
16/02/2020 00Z-3.5 hPa-0.4 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.9 hPa-1.6 hPa-3.7 hPa
15/02/2020 18Z+1.3 hPa+3.2 hPa+0.2 hPa+0 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.9 hPa
15/02/2020 12Z+5.6 hPa+5.4 hPa+5.7 hPa+4.9 hPa+4.7 hPa+5.6 hPa+5.6 hPa
15/02/2020 06Z+3.1 hPa+2.7 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+4.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.5 hPa
15/02/2020 00Z+6.8 hPa+2.5 hPa+3.1 hPa+7 hPa+7.6 hPa+4.3 hPa+5.9 hPa
14/02/2020 18Z+3.4 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.7 hPa+3 hPa+4.4 hPa+2.8 hPa+3.5 hPa
14/02/2020 12Z-1.6 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.8 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.5 hPa-1.7 hPa
14/02/2020 06Z+2.9 hPa+5 hPa+3 hPa+0.7 hPa+2.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.8 hPa
14/02/2020 00Z+1.6 hPa+4 hPa+1.5 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.2 hPa+3 hPa+2.7 hPa
13/02/2020 18Z+0.4 hPa+1 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.5 hPa+1.6 hPa+0 hPa+1.4 hPa
Moyenne+0.4 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.7 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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