• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Mai 2020

Mai 2020 - Juin 2020 - Juillet 2020 - Aot 2020 - Septembre 2020 - Octobre 2020


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
08/04/2020 18Z+0.1 C+1.7 C+2.6 C+1.6 C+0.2 C+0.2 C+1.1 C
08/04/2020 12Z+0.7 C+1.9 C+3.1 C+2.5 C+0.6 C-0.2 C+0.6 C
08/04/2020 06Z+0.9 C+1.1 C+2.8 C+1.5 C+0.8 C+1 C+3.1 C
08/04/2020 00Z+1.5 C+1.2 C+0.9 C+1.5 C+2 C+0.4 C+3.2 C
07/04/2020 18Z+1.7 C+1.4 C+2 C+2.1 C+1.5 C+0.7 C+1.8 C
07/04/2020 12Z+0.1 C-0.1 C-0.2 C+0.9 C+0.7 C-1.5 C+1.3 C
07/04/2020 06Z+1.8 C+1.5 C+2.7 C+2.2 C+1.8 C+1.1 C+2.9 C
07/04/2020 00Z-1.3 C-1.6 C-0.3 C+0.5 C-0.5 C-3.1 C-1.4 C
06/04/2020 18Z-0.2 C-0.3 C+0.7 C+1.1 C+-0 C-1.3 C+0.7 C
06/04/2020 12Z+1.5 C+0.4 C+0.7 C+1.3 C+2 C+-0 C+3.1 C
06/04/2020 06Z-0.6 C-1.2 C-1.7 C-0.1 C+0.6 C-1.9 C+2.4 C
06/04/2020 00Z-0.1 C-0.4 C+0.5 C+0.7 C+0.6 C-1.4 C+0.6 C
05/04/2020 18Z-0.2 C-0.1 C+0.9 C+1.1 C+0.2 C-1.5 C+0.6 C
05/04/2020 12Z-2.8 C-2.4 C-2.6 C-0.7 C-2.1 C-4.3 C-1.7 C
05/04/2020 06Z-1.8 C-1.5 C-1 C-0.1 C-1.3 C-3.2 C-1.4 C
05/04/2020 00Z-0.3 C+0.3 C+1.2 C+1.3 C+0 C-1 C+0.3 C
04/04/2020 18Z-2.6 C-1.9 C-2.3 C-0.4 C-2 C-4.1 C-1.8 C
04/04/2020 12Z+1.2 C+0.9 C+1.8 C+2.3 C+1.7 C-0.2 C+2.1 C
04/04/2020 06Z-0.1 C+0.2 C+-0 C+0.6 C+0.6 C-0.8 C+2.2 C
04/04/2020 00Z-0.6 C-0.2 C+0.7 C+0.7 C-0.4 C-1.6 C+0.3 C
03/04/2020 18Z+0.5 C-0.1 C+0.5 C+0.6 C+1 C-0.5 C+2 C
03/04/2020 12Z-2.2 C-2 C-2.4 C-0.6 C-1.5 C-4.2 C-1.1 C
03/04/2020 06Z-0.1 C+0.2 C+2 C+1.8 C+0 C-1.2 C-0.6 C
03/04/2020 00Z+0.4 C+1.2 C+2.4 C+1.5 C+0.8 C-0.4 C+0.9 C
02/04/2020 18Z-0.8 C-0.9 C+0.1 C+0.1 C-0.3 C-1.7 C-0.1 C
02/04/2020 12Z+0 C+0.3 C+0.7 C+1 C+0.5 C-1.2 C+0.8 C
02/04/2020 06Z-2.5 C-0.8 C-0.8 C-0.2 C-2.1 C-3.7 C-2.7 C
02/04/2020 00Z-0.9 C+0.5 C-0.1 C+0.4 C-0.2 C-1.1 C+1.1 C
01/04/2020 18Z-0.7 C-1.2 C-1.1 C+0.4 C-0.3 C-2.8 C-0.5 C
01/04/2020 12Z+1 C+0.2 C+0.7 C+1.2 C+1.8 C-0.1 C+2.9 C
Moyenne-0.2 C-0.1 C+0.5 C+0.9 C+0.2 C-1.3 C+0.8 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
08/04/2020 18Z+0.3 C+2 C+2.6 C+0.8 C-0.2 C+1.4 C-0.2 C
08/04/2020 12Z+1.4 C+1.6 C+3 C+3.2 C+0.6 C+1.2 C-0.5 C
08/04/2020 06Z+2.4 C+0.4 C+2.8 C+2.1 C+1.6 C+2.3 C+2.2 C
08/04/2020 00Z+2.9 C+0 C+1.1 C+2.5 C+3.2 C+1.6 C+2.7 C
07/04/2020 18Z+2.6 C+1 C+1.5 C+3.1 C+2.7 C+1.8 C+1 C
07/04/2020 12Z+0.4 C-0.7 C-0.8 C+0 C+1 C-0.4 C+0.4 C
07/04/2020 06Z+2.3 C+0.8 C+1.8 C+2.5 C+2 C+2 C+2 C
07/04/2020 00Z-1.1 C-2.9 C-1 C-0.3 C-0.9 C-2.3 C-2.5 C
06/04/2020 18Z+0.2 C-0.6 C+0.1 C+0.1 C+0.3 C-0.4 C-0.3 C
06/04/2020 12Z+1.9 C+0.2 C+0 C+0.6 C+2.7 C+1 C+2.5 C
06/04/2020 06Z+0.2 C-1.6 C-2.1 C-1.8 C+1.3 C-0.5 C+1.8 C
06/04/2020 00Z-0.1 C-0.5 C+0.4 C+0.1 C+0.2 C-0.3 C-0.4 C
05/04/2020 18Z+-0 C-1.5 C-0.2 C+1 C+0.5 C-0.8 C-0.6 C
05/04/2020 12Z-2.7 C-3.5 C-3.6 C-2.5 C-2.1 C-3.6 C-2.6 C
05/04/2020 06Z-1.6 C-1.7 C-1.2 C-0.9 C-1.3 C-2.4 C-2.4 C
05/04/2020 00Z-0.7 C-0.2 C+0.2 C+0.1 C-0.6 C-0.4 C-1.2 C
04/04/2020 18Z-3.2 C-3.3 C-3.7 C-2.6 C-2.7 C-3.4 C-3.1 C
04/04/2020 12Z+1.5 C-0.1 C+1.3 C+1.7 C+1.8 C+0.6 C+0.8 C
04/04/2020 06Z+0.3 C-0.2 C-0.8 C-1.1 C+0.8 C+0.1 C+1.1 C
04/04/2020 00Z+0 C-1 C+0.4 C+1.5 C+0.1 C-0.4 C-0.9 C
03/04/2020 18Z+1.3 C-0.3 C+0.4 C+0.1 C+1.9 C+0.7 C+1.4 C
03/04/2020 12Z-2.3 C-3 C-3.6 C-2.3 C-1.6 C-3.4 C-2.1 C
03/04/2020 06Z+0.4 C-0.1 C+1.8 C+1.9 C-0.1 C-0.3 C-1.4 C
03/04/2020 00Z+0.4 C+0.6 C+1.7 C+1.5 C+0.2 C+0.5 C-0.3 C
02/04/2020 18Z+0 C-1 C+0.3 C+0.8 C-0.2 C-0.6 C-1.3 C
02/04/2020 12Z+0.1 C-0.1 C+0.4 C+0.9 C+0.4 C-0.6 C-0.3 C
02/04/2020 06Z-3.2 C-2.2 C-1.4 C-1 C-3.1 C-3.2 C-4.5 C
02/04/2020 00Z-0.6 C+0.3 C+0 C-0.5 C-0.7 C-0.1 C-0.3 C
01/04/2020 18Z-0.8 C-1.9 C-2.2 C-0.8 C-0.5 C-2 C-1.3 C
01/04/2020 12Z+1.5 C+0.5 C+0.2 C+0.1 C+2.2 C+1.2 C+2.3 C
Moyenne+0.1 C-0.6 C+-0 C+0.4 C+0.3 C-0.4 C-0.3 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
08/04/2020 18Z+28.5 %-56.9 %-29.4 %+45.4 %+22.9 %-12.2 %-12.5 %
08/04/2020 12Z-38.9 %-12.6 %-37.3 %-91.7 %-84.3 %-70.9 %-66 %
08/04/2020 06Z-17.9 %+48.3 %+19.9 %-82.9 %-31.5 %-31.1 %-36.5 %
08/04/2020 00Z+39.6 %-12.6 %+130.8 %-40.8 %-50.1 %+24 %+28.3 %
07/04/2020 18Z-48.5 %-52.7 %-6.1 %-80.5 %-65.3 %+21.8 %-64.8 %
07/04/2020 12Z+55.6 %+97.9 %+22.5 %-36.9 %-16 %+5.1 %+11.9 %
07/04/2020 06Z-7.7 %-83.3 %-2.1 %-56.1 %-16.3 %-37.8 %-13.9 %
07/04/2020 00Z-4.5 %-9.4 %+45.4 %+27.9 %+2.3 %+2.8 %-23 %
06/04/2020 18Z+16.3 %+6 %+23.3 %-40.6 %+4 %+3.3 %-42.4 %
06/04/2020 12Z+116.5 %+100.8 %+52.9 %-29.4 %+102.5 %+28.5 %+11.4 %
06/04/2020 06Z+118.1 %+90.9 %+154.6 %-55.4 %+32.2 %+7.9 %+18.2 %
06/04/2020 00Z-6.2 %-66.4 %+15.8 %+11.9 %-14 %-57.2 %-12.5 %
05/04/2020 18Z-27.4 %-21.6 %-36.1 %-86.9 %-39.1 %-17 %-23.3 %
05/04/2020 12Z+49.4 %+8.5 %+42.4 %-19.5 %+10.9 %+15.1 %+46.5 %
05/04/2020 06Z+49.9 %+25.7 %+34.2 %-27.7 %+42.2 %+42.1 %+8 %
05/04/2020 00Z+11.7 %-93.4 %-30.8 %-26.8 %+28.5 %-47.2 %-25.6 %
04/04/2020 18Z-2.2 %-14.4 %-56.5 %-24.5 %+9.2 %+19.2 %+20 %
04/04/2020 12Z+29.5 %-57.6 %+2.8 %-18.6 %+11 %-35.7 %-22.5 %
04/04/2020 06Z+43.9 %-48.8 %+48 %-37.6 %+30.2 %+7.9 %-37.9 %
04/04/2020 00Z-15.4 %+11.2 %-26.2 %-43.9 %-58.7 %-30.9 %-56.4 %
03/04/2020 18Z+46 %+42.5 %+104.3 %+2.1 %+26.8 %-12.1 %-3.1 %
03/04/2020 12Z+5.1 %+62.6 %+13.2 %-17.4 %+22.1 %+36.5 %+37.8 %
03/04/2020 06Z-41.5 %-67.7 %-18.3 %-71.1 %-49.2 %-76.1 %-60.2 %
03/04/2020 00Z-54.2 %-68 %-92 %-66.5 %-51.9 %-53.9 %-35.4 %
02/04/2020 18Z+3.6 %-24 %+71.5 %-12.4 %-42 %+31.1 %-16 %
02/04/2020 12Z-25.8 %-50.5 %-14.1 %-35.2 %-18.7 %-38.9 %-24.8 %
02/04/2020 06Z-26.2 %-80.5 %-20.4 %-54.6 %-9.4 %-47.1 %-46.4 %
02/04/2020 00Z+11.1 %+13.8 %+30.2 %+21 %-13.2 %+4 %-8.5 %
01/04/2020 18Z-7.8 %+6 %+43.3 %+41.6 %-40.9 %-6.7 %+53.1 %
01/04/2020 12Z+85.2 %-1.4 %+92.2 %+49.7 %+60.3 %+10.7 %-7.9 %
Moyenne+12.9 %-10.3 %+19.3 %-28.6 %-6.5 %-10.5 %-13.5 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
08/04/2020 18Z+1.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+2 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.6 hPa+2.9 hPa+2.6 hPa
08/04/2020 12Z+3.6 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.1 hPa+3.3 hPa+4.4 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.5 hPa
08/04/2020 06Z+3.9 hPa+3 hPa-0.1 hPa+3.8 hPa+5.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.5 hPa
08/04/2020 00Z-1.4 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.7 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.6 hPa
07/04/2020 18Z+4.6 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+5.2 hPa+6.4 hPa+2 hPa+4 hPa
07/04/2020 12Z+0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa+0.7 hPa+1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.6 hPa
07/04/2020 06Z+2.9 hPa+2.5 hPa+1.1 hPa+3.4 hPa+3.5 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.5 hPa
07/04/2020 00Z+0.5 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.2 hPa
06/04/2020 18Z-0.8 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.8 hPa-1 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.7 hPa
06/04/2020 12Z+-0 hPa+0 hPa-0.4 hPa+1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.4 hPa
06/04/2020 06Z-3.9 hPa-3.4 hPa-4.1 hPa-2.4 hPa-3.5 hPa-4.1 hPa-4.7 hPa
06/04/2020 00Z+1 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.7 hPa+0 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.1 hPa
05/04/2020 18Z+3.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+4 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.3 hPa
05/04/2020 12Z-1.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.6 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.4 hPa
05/04/2020 06Z-0.2 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa-1 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.7 hPa
05/04/2020 00Z+2.4 hPa+2.9 hPa+4 hPa+3.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+3.5 hPa+2.5 hPa
04/04/2020 18Z+0.8 hPa-0.4 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.3 hPa
04/04/2020 12Z+1.6 hPa+1.3 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.5 hPa
04/04/2020 06Z+1.8 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.4 hPa
04/04/2020 00Z+3.1 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+4.2 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.8 hPa
03/04/2020 18Z-4 hPa-3.1 hPa-4.4 hPa-4.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.7 hPa
03/04/2020 12Z-0.6 hPa-3 hPa+0.3 hPa+1 hPa-0.8 hPa-2 hPa-2.5 hPa
03/04/2020 06Z+6.3 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.4 hPa+6.2 hPa+6.9 hPa+4.3 hPa+5.6 hPa
03/04/2020 00Z+4.6 hPa+2.8 hPa+3 hPa+4.5 hPa+4.6 hPa+3.6 hPa+4.2 hPa
02/04/2020 18Z-0.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.6 hPa-1.3 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.6 hPa-0.4 hPa
02/04/2020 12Z+3 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.5 hPa
02/04/2020 06Z+3.7 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+3.8 hPa+3.9 hPa+1.7 hPa+2.8 hPa
02/04/2020 00Z+1.3 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.8 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.9 hPa
01/04/2020 18Z+0.8 hPa-0.9 hPa+1.5 hPa+2 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.2 hPa
01/04/2020 12Z-3.9 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.7 hPa-5.6 hPa-4.1 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.1 hPa
Moyenne+1.1 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.7 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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