• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Novembre 2018

Novembre 2018 - Dcembre 2018 - Janvier 2019 - Fvrier 2019 - Mars 2019 - Avril 2019


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/10/2018 00Z+0.5 C+0.2 C+1.5 C+1.2 C+1.4 C-1 C+0.6 C
20/10/2018 18Z+2 C+2.7 C+2.5 C+0.9 C+2.3 C+2.9 C+4 C
20/10/2018 12Z+1 C+1.6 C+1.1 C+1.8 C+1.5 C+0.8 C+1.5 C
20/10/2018 06Z-1.6 C-0.7 C-0.5 C-1.2 C-1.1 C-1.9 C-1.6 C
20/10/2018 00Z-0.6 C+0.3 C+1.1 C+0.5 C-0.5 C-0.7 C-0.6 C
19/10/2018 18Z-0.1 C+0.9 C+1.4 C+0.4 C+0.5 C+0.1 C+0.3 C
19/10/2018 12Z+1.6 C+1.5 C+1.6 C+1.8 C+2.6 C+0.6 C+2.2 C
19/10/2018 06Z+0.4 C+0.2 C-0.3 C+1.1 C+1.4 C-1 C+1 C
19/10/2018 00Z-0.7 C-1.2 C-0.3 C+0.4 C+0 C-2.7 C-1.3 C
18/10/2018 18Z+0.9 C-0.2 C+0.1 C+0.6 C+1.5 C-1.1 C+0.5 C
18/10/2018 12Z+1.1 C+0.3 C+2.5 C+1.4 C+1.2 C+0.3 C+0.4 C
18/10/2018 06Z-1.3 C-0.7 C-0.6 C-0.8 C-0.6 C-2 C-1.7 C
18/10/2018 00Z+1.9 C+2 C+3.1 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+2.2 C+2.8 C
17/10/2018 18Z-0.4 C+0.7 C+0.8 C-0.1 C-0.9 C+0.3 C-0.6 C
17/10/2018 12Z-0.3 C+0.2 C-0.8 C-0.4 C+0 C-1.5 C+0.4 C
17/10/2018 06Z-0.5 C+0.9 C+1 C-0.5 C-0.1 C-0.2 C+0.2 C
17/10/2018 00Z+2.9 C+1.9 C+2.6 C+2 C+3.3 C+1.8 C+3 C
16/10/2018 18Z-0.2 C+1 C+0.6 C+0.1 C+0.5 C+0.1 C+1.3 C
16/10/2018 12Z+0.5 C+0.2 C+1.3 C+0.2 C+0.4 C-0.4 C+0.9 C
16/10/2018 06Z+0.7 C+1.1 C+0.2 C+0.1 C+1.3 C+0.4 C+2.8 C
16/10/2018 00Z-0.6 C-1 C-1 C-0.1 C+0.1 C-2.5 C-0.5 C
15/10/2018 18Z+0.9 C+2 C+2.1 C+1.5 C+1.7 C+1.2 C+2.2 C
15/10/2018 12Z+2.5 C+2.5 C+2.5 C+1 C+2.6 C+2.2 C+3.2 C
15/10/2018 06Z-0.2 C-1.1 C+0.8 C+0.7 C+0.3 C-2.3 C-0.6 C
15/10/2018 00Z-0.3 C+1.2 C+0.7 C+0.2 C-0.3 C+0.5 C+0.5 C
14/10/2018 18Z+-0 C+0.3 C+0.1 C+0.5 C+0.5 C-1.2 C+0.2 C
14/10/2018 12Z-1.6 C-0.1 C-0.2 C-0.5 C-0.8 C-1.3 C-0.4 C
14/10/2018 06Z+0.5 C+1.6 C+0.9 C+0.4 C+1.2 C+0.4 C+2.4 C
14/10/2018 00Z+0.9 C+2.2 C+1.6 C+1.5 C+1.1 C+1.8 C+2.4 C
13/10/2018 18Z+2.9 C+3 C+3.3 C+2.1 C+3 C+2.9 C+4.1 C
Moyenne+0.4 C+0.8 C+1 C+0.6 C+0.9 C+-0 C+1 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/10/2018 00Z+1 C-0.3 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+1 C+0.3 C+-0 C
20/10/2018 18Z+1.6 C+1.1 C+1.3 C+0.1 C+1.4 C+2.8 C+3 C
20/10/2018 12Z+2.6 C+0.8 C+2.6 C+3.1 C+2.4 C+1.4 C+1.3 C
20/10/2018 06Z-1.8 C-2.3 C-1.5 C-1 C-2.1 C-2 C-2.4 C
20/10/2018 00Z-0.2 C-1.5 C-1 C-0.4 C-0.2 C-1 C-0.9 C
19/10/2018 18Z+1.1 C-0.1 C+0.5 C+0.2 C+0.7 C+0.9 C+0.9 C
19/10/2018 12Z+2.1 C+1.2 C+1.7 C+1 C+2 C+2.2 C+2.4 C
19/10/2018 06Z-0.4 C-1.4 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-0.2 C-1.2 C-0.2 C
19/10/2018 00Z-1.7 C-3.1 C-1.4 C-0.4 C-1.4 C-2.7 C-2.9 C
18/10/2018 18Z-0.8 C-1.9 C-0.7 C-0.7 C-0.7 C-1.6 C-1.6 C
18/10/2018 12Z+2.2 C-1.4 C+1.3 C+1.6 C+2.6 C+0.7 C+1.5 C
18/10/2018 06Z-2.6 C-2.3 C-2 C-3.1 C-2.3 C-2.2 C-2.2 C
18/10/2018 00Z+0.2 C+1 C+1 C-0.5 C-0.4 C+1.4 C+0.8 C
17/10/2018 18Z+1 C-0.4 C+0.6 C-0.3 C+1.1 C+0.5 C+0.5 C
17/10/2018 12Z-1.3 C-0.8 C-2.7 C-2.1 C-0.9 C-1.2 C-0.6 C
17/10/2018 06Z-1.8 C-0.2 C-0.4 C-1.8 C-2 C-0.5 C-1.2 C
17/10/2018 00Z+1.3 C+0.6 C+1.4 C+0.7 C+1 C+1.5 C+1.3 C
16/10/2018 18Z+1 C+0.2 C+0.7 C+0.4 C+0.8 C+1.1 C+1 C
16/10/2018 12Z-1.1 C-1.1 C-0.4 C-1.1 C-1.3 C-0.7 C-1.2 C
16/10/2018 06Z-0.4 C-0.4 C-1.6 C-1.9 C-0.2 C+0.1 C+1.5 C
16/10/2018 00Z-0.9 C-2.2 C-2.5 C-0.7 C-0.5 C-2.3 C-1.5 C
15/10/2018 18Z+2.5 C+2.1 C+2.9 C+1.9 C+2.5 C+2.7 C+2.5 C
15/10/2018 12Z+1.5 C+1.1 C+1.2 C-0.2 C+1.6 C+1.8 C+2.1 C
15/10/2018 06Z-2.6 C-2.7 C-2 C-2 C-2.5 C-3 C-3.2 C
15/10/2018 00Z+0 C+0.1 C+0.6 C+0.6 C-0.2 C+0.3 C-0.3 C
14/10/2018 18Z-0.6 C-0.6 C-1.5 C-1.5 C-0.4 C-0.7 C-0.4 C
14/10/2018 12Z+0.5 C-1.5 C+0.2 C+0.4 C+0.4 C-0.2 C-0.1 C
14/10/2018 06Z+0.9 C+0.2 C+0.7 C+0.1 C+0.8 C+1 C+1.1 C
14/10/2018 00Z+1.7 C+0.5 C+0.7 C+0.9 C+2.1 C+1.5 C+2.3 C
13/10/2018 18Z+3.3 C+2.3 C+3.1 C+2.4 C+2.7 C+3.1 C+3 C
Moyenne+0.3 C-0.4 C+0.1 C-0.1 C+0.3 C+0.1 C+0.2 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/10/2018 00Z+41.8 %-68.6 %+25.2 %-12.1 %+22.1 %+15.6 %-11.9 %
20/10/2018 18Z+14.9 %+101.6 %+34.1 %+0.1 %+1.4 %+49.2 %+17.6 %
20/10/2018 12Z-57.2 %-78.6 %-87.6 %-72.8 %-50.7 %-51.7 %-33.9 %
20/10/2018 06Z+12.5 %-61.6 %-17.9 %-25.1 %-24.5 %-14.2 %-3.7 %
20/10/2018 00Z-7.2 %-15.9 %-19.7 %-7.8 %-1.5 %-2.6 %-11.7 %
19/10/2018 18Z+10.9 %+48.4 %-38.9 %+13.4 %-24.3 %+76.7 %+27.9 %
19/10/2018 12Z-58.2 %-93.7 %-78.2 %-33.5 %-33.6 %-91.7 %-67.9 %
19/10/2018 06Z-34.2 %-23.4 %-37.3 %-28.5 %-15.7 %-15.6 %-24.5 %
19/10/2018 00Z+19.3 %-16 %+8.1 %-29.9 %+17 %+10.9 %+17.8 %
18/10/2018 18Z-33.8 %-5.5 %-47.3 %-22.1 %-22.4 %-8.2 %-3.8 %
18/10/2018 12Z-55.5 %+17.2 %-55.8 %-25 %-63.5 %-55.8 %-74.5 %
18/10/2018 06Z-18.2 %+46.4 %-53.6 %-44.9 %-28.6 %+3.1 %-24.9 %
18/10/2018 00Z+154.1 %+4 %+1.7 %+40.3 %+146.8 %+70.3 %+103.2 %
17/10/2018 18Z-20.6 %-20 %-46.2 %-30.5 %-50.1 %+27 %-25.8 %
17/10/2018 12Z+26.5 %-45.4 %-10.5 %+6.8 %+56.5 %-15.3 %-23.6 %
17/10/2018 06Z+27.9 %+86.2 %+16.3 %+4 %+12.3 %+83.8 %+81.2 %
17/10/2018 00Z+43.8 %-71.4 %+32.5 %+80.2 %+72.9 %+9.8 %+14.9 %
16/10/2018 18Z-39.8 %+67 %-40.5 %-67.2 %-34.8 %-18.5 %-31.3 %
16/10/2018 12Z+36.2 %+47.9 %+65.1 %-8 %+63.9 %+25.1 %+28.1 %
16/10/2018 06Z+87.7 %+174 %+29.3 %+34.6 %+131 %+54.6 %+58.6 %
16/10/2018 00Z+48.7 %-86.1 %+1.4 %-41 %+57.8 %+42 %+17.8 %
15/10/2018 18Z-26.9 %-65.9 %-14.8 %-52.1 %-12.3 %-33 %-34.1 %
15/10/2018 12Z-1.3 %+120.7 %+22 %+85 %+24.2 %+41.5 %+13 %
15/10/2018 06Z+95.5 %-82.1 %+110.3 %+15.3 %+129.3 %+80.2 %+99.4 %
15/10/2018 00Z-18.4 %-18.5 %-61.3 %-30.8 %-1.3 %-38.4 %-35.4 %
14/10/2018 18Z+13.1 %-54.2 %-4.7 %+1.2 %+5.2 %-50.1 %-50.6 %
14/10/2018 12Z-69.8 %+78.1 %-76.5 %-41.9 %-76.1 %-52.7 %-63.9 %
14/10/2018 06Z-57.4 %-30.1 %-67.4 %-61.1 %-66.7 %-48.5 %-67.2 %
14/10/2018 00Z-62.1 %+35.2 %-79.4 %-31 %-50.8 %-47.2 %-76.9 %
13/10/2018 18Z-11.6 %+27.9 %-65.9 %-54.1 %-5.6 %-36.9 %-7.2 %
Moyenne+2 %+0.6 %-18.6 %-14.6 %+5.9 %+0.3 %-6.4 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
21/10/2018 00Z+1.6 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.1 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.7 hPa+1.6 hPa
20/10/2018 18Z+0.6 hPa+3 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.4 hPa
20/10/2018 12Z+7.4 hPa+6 hPa+6.3 hPa+7.2 hPa+7.9 hPa+6.3 hPa+6.7 hPa
20/10/2018 06Z-0.4 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.9 hPa+1.3 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.1 hPa
20/10/2018 00Z+1.3 hPa+0 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.1 hPa+2 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.1 hPa
19/10/2018 18Z-1.5 hPa-1.9 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.8 hPa-0.2 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.2 hPa
19/10/2018 12Z+3.5 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.6 hPa+3.3 hPa+2.9 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.6 hPa
19/10/2018 06Z+4.4 hPa+3.9 hPa+6 hPa+4.5 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.9 hPa+4.3 hPa
19/10/2018 00Z-0.2 hPa+0 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.3 hPa
18/10/2018 18Z+0.7 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.2 hPa
18/10/2018 12Z+3.6 hPa+4.5 hPa+1 hPa+1.3 hPa+5.3 hPa+3.7 hPa+5.2 hPa
18/10/2018 06Z-1.3 hPa-1.9 hPa-3.4 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.2 hPa-2 hPa-1 hPa
18/10/2018 00Z-6.1 hPa-2.2 hPa-3.7 hPa-5.3 hPa-6.4 hPa-3.8 hPa-5.5 hPa
17/10/2018 18Z+3.8 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.4 hPa+3.8 hPa+5.1 hPa+2.8 hPa+4.2 hPa
17/10/2018 12Z-0.4 hPa-0.5 hPa+1 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.4 hPa
17/10/2018 06Z-6.4 hPa-4 hPa-7 hPa-7.6 hPa-5.9 hPa-5.2 hPa-5.6 hPa
17/10/2018 00Z-1.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+0.8 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.7 hPa+1.6 hPa+0.1 hPa
16/10/2018 18Z+4.9 hPa+3.6 hPa+3.2 hPa+5.3 hPa+5.8 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.3 hPa
16/10/2018 12Z-4.2 hPa-3.1 hPa-3.2 hPa-3 hPa-4.2 hPa-3.7 hPa-5.1 hPa
16/10/2018 06Z-5.1 hPa-3 hPa-3.5 hPa-4.1 hPa-5.4 hPa-3.9 hPa-4.9 hPa
16/10/2018 00Z+5.1 hPa+3.3 hPa+7 hPa+8.1 hPa+5 hPa+4.5 hPa+3.7 hPa
15/10/2018 18Z+3.8 hPa+4.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+3 hPa+3.4 hPa+4 hPa+3.9 hPa
15/10/2018 12Z-2.4 hPa+0.4 hPa-2.5 hPa-4.8 hPa-2.5 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.8 hPa
15/10/2018 06Z-5.2 hPa-2.2 hPa-0.2 hPa-2 hPa-7.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-6 hPa
15/10/2018 00Z+1.6 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+3.1 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.3 hPa
14/10/2018 18Z-0.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa
14/10/2018 12Z+5.9 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.9 hPa+6.3 hPa+7.3 hPa+3.3 hPa+5 hPa
14/10/2018 06Z+8.2 hPa+6.2 hPa+6 hPa+8 hPa+9.1 hPa+6.7 hPa+7.7 hPa
14/10/2018 00Z+3.9 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.4 hPa+5 hPa+2.5 hPa+4.2 hPa
13/10/2018 18Z+3.3 hPa+3.9 hPa+3.2 hPa+3 hPa+3.4 hPa+3.6 hPa+3.2 hPa
Moyenne+0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+1 hPa+1 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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