• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Mars 2019

Mars 2019 - Avril 2019 - Mai 2019 - Juin 2019 - Juillet 2019 - Aot 2019


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
19/02/2019 18Z-0.5 C+0.1 C-0.1 C+0 C+0.2 C-1.3 C+0.2 C
19/02/2019 12Z-0.2 C+0.5 C+0.3 C+0.4 C+0.4 C-0.7 C+1.3 C
19/02/2019 06Z+0.8 C+0.1 C+1.6 C+1.1 C+0.4 C+0.2 C+0.4 C
19/02/2019 00Z-2.3 C-1.8 C-2.4 C-1 C-1.4 C-4 C-1.7 C
18/02/2019 18Z+0.1 C+0.4 C+1 C+0.6 C+0.4 C-0.5 C+1 C
18/02/2019 12Z-0.1 C-0.5 C+0.1 C+0.9 C+0.3 C-1.9 C-0.1 C
18/02/2019 06Z+1.3 C+0.4 C+1 C+1.1 C+1.9 C-0.2 C+1.8 C
18/02/2019 00Z+2.3 C+1.1 C+2.8 C+1.3 C+2.4 C+1.4 C+2.9 C
17/02/2019 18Z+0.4 C+0.2 C+1.3 C+1.6 C-0.2 C-0.9 C+0.3 C
17/02/2019 12Z-4.3 C-2.7 C-2.6 C-0.9 C-4.2 C-5.1 C-4.7 C
17/02/2019 06Z+0.6 C-0.3 C+0.9 C+0.6 C+0.5 C-0.5 C+1.3 C
17/02/2019 00Z+0.6 C+-0 C+0.3 C+0.8 C+0.9 C-0.6 C+1 C
16/02/2019 18Z+2.1 C+1.2 C+2.5 C+2 C+2.5 C+1.3 C+2.5 C
16/02/2019 12Z+2.2 C+0.9 C+2.3 C+0.9 C+2.3 C+1.9 C+3.9 C
16/02/2019 06Z+0 C-0.9 C-0.5 C+0.4 C+0.7 C-1.7 C+0.5 C
16/02/2019 00Z+0.3 C+0.3 C+0.9 C+0.8 C+-0 C-1.2 C+0.1 C
15/02/2019 18Z-1.3 C-1.1 C-0.8 C+-0 C-0.6 C-2.9 C-1 C
15/02/2019 12Z+-0 C-0.4 C+0.3 C+0.2 C+0.5 C-1.3 C+0.8 C
15/02/2019 06Z+-0 C-0.4 C+0.5 C+0.6 C+0.4 C-1.6 C-0.1 C
15/02/2019 00Z+0.8 C+0.3 C+1.4 C+1 C+1.4 C-0.2 C+1.5 C
14/02/2019 18Z+1.7 C+1.3 C+2.5 C+1.5 C+1.5 C+0.7 C+1.6 C
14/02/2019 12Z-0.9 C-0.1 C+1.2 C+0.6 C-1.2 C-1.3 C-0.8 C
14/02/2019 06Z+1.3 C+0.3 C+1.2 C+1.1 C+1.7 C+0 C+2.3 C
14/02/2019 00Z+2.5 C+0.7 C+2.5 C+1.6 C+2.9 C+0.7 C+2.9 C
13/02/2019 18Z-0.7 C-1 C-0.9 C-0.6 C-0.4 C-2 C+0.2 C
13/02/2019 12Z-3.5 C-4 C-3.9 C-2.3 C-2.7 C-5.8 C-3.8 C
13/02/2019 06Z-2.8 C-2.3 C-2.3 C-2 C-2.5 C-4.4 C-2.8 C
13/02/2019 00Z-1.3 C-0.9 C-1.2 C-0.6 C-0.6 C-2.5 C-0.2 C
12/02/2019 18Z-0.5 C-0.1 C-0.4 C+0.1 C+0.1 C-1.1 C+0.2 C
12/02/2019 12Z-2.8 C-2.2 C-2.7 C-1.2 C-2.1 C-4.2 C-2.9 C
Moyenne-0.1 C-0.4 C+0.2 C+0.4 C+0.2 C-1.3 C+0.3 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
19/02/2019 18Z-1 C+-0 C-0.5 C-1.7 C-0.8 C-0.2 C-0.5 C
19/02/2019 12Z-0.1 C+0.1 C+0.4 C-1.4 C-0.4 C+0.3 C+0.6 C
19/02/2019 06Z+1.3 C-1.6 C+0.5 C+0.2 C+1.4 C+0.4 C+0.3 C
19/02/2019 00Z-3.2 C-3.7 C-4.2 C-3.2 C-2.8 C-3.8 C-3.1 C
18/02/2019 18Z-0.1 C-0.3 C+0.7 C-0.9 C-0.4 C+0.2 C+0.2 C
18/02/2019 12Z-0.8 C-2.2 C-1.4 C-1.3 C-0.5 C-1.5 C-0.8 C
18/02/2019 06Z+0.7 C-0.7 C-0.1 C-0.6 C+1.1 C+0.4 C+1.1 C
18/02/2019 00Z+2 C+-0 C+1.9 C+1 C+1.9 C+2.1 C+2.5 C
17/02/2019 18Z+0.2 C-0.7 C+-0 C+0.1 C+-0 C-0.4 C-0.6 C
17/02/2019 12Z-5 C-4.7 C-4.7 C-3.5 C-5.6 C-5.1 C-5.7 C
17/02/2019 06Z+0.4 C-1.1 C+0.2 C-0.4 C+0.1 C+0.4 C+1.6 C
17/02/2019 00Z+-0 C-1.5 C-0.8 C-1 C-0.2 C+0.1 C+0.5 C
16/02/2019 18Z+3 C+0.4 C+1.6 C+1 C+3.2 C+2.9 C+3.5 C
16/02/2019 12Z+2 C+0.3 C+1.2 C-0.5 C+1.8 C+2.2 C+3.6 C
16/02/2019 06Z-0.8 C-2.2 C-1.6 C-1.5 C-0.6 C-1.3 C+-0 C
16/02/2019 00Z-0.4 C-0.6 C+0.3 C+0.1 C-0.8 C-0.5 C-0.9 C
15/02/2019 18Z-2.6 C-2.8 C-2.6 C-2.7 C-2.4 C-2.7 C-2.3 C
15/02/2019 12Z-1.5 C-2.1 C-1.2 C-2.4 C-1.3 C-1.4 C-0.9 C
15/02/2019 06Z-0.4 C-2.2 C-0.9 C-1.3 C-0.3 C-1.2 C-0.8 C
15/02/2019 00Z-0.3 C-0.9 C+-0 C-0.7 C-0.1 C-0.2 C+0 C
14/02/2019 18Z+0.3 C+1.4 C+1.6 C+0.3 C+0 C+1 C+0.1 C
14/02/2019 12Z-0.5 C-0.3 C+0.2 C+0.2 C-1.5 C-0.3 C-1.6 C
14/02/2019 06Z+0.8 C-1 C+0.1 C-0.5 C+0.8 C+0.6 C+1.6 C
14/02/2019 00Z+2 C+1.1 C+2.1 C+0.5 C+2 C+2.1 C+2.4 C
13/02/2019 18Z-1.3 C-2 C-1.8 C-2.7 C-1.2 C-1.5 C-0.4 C
13/02/2019 12Z-5.3 C-5.9 C-6.4 C-5.5 C-4.9 C-5.5 C-5.2 C
13/02/2019 06Z-4.1 C-3.5 C-3.2 C-4.2 C-3.9 C-3.8 C-3.6 C
13/02/2019 00Z-2.7 C-2.7 C-3.2 C-3.1 C-2.4 C-2.1 C-1.4 C
12/02/2019 18Z-1.5 C-1 C-1.6 C-2 C-1.3 C-0.7 C-1.1 C
12/02/2019 12Z-3.8 C-3.6 C-3.7 C-3.7 C-3.5 C-3.5 C-3.5 C
Moyenne-0.8 C-1.5 C-0.9 C-1.4 C-0.8 C-0.8 C-0.5 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
19/02/2019 18Z-6.1 %+14.8 %+72 %-14.9 %-33.5 %+92.6 %-31.3 %
19/02/2019 12Z+140.4 %+84.3 %+70.4 %+14.3 %+52.5 %+58 %+33.4 %
19/02/2019 06Z-42.7 %+34.5 %-2 %-21.7 %-68.5 %-58.4 %-66.3 %
19/02/2019 00Z-2.7 %-32.3 %-3.3 %-44.1 %-26.9 %+18.6 %-32.1 %
18/02/2019 18Z+69.1 %-19.2 %+51.5 %+67 %+60.3 %+66.9 %+11.1 %
18/02/2019 12Z+17.8 %+114.1 %+51 %+30.9 %-13.4 %+85.6 %-1.3 %
18/02/2019 06Z+75.2 %-14 %+114.6 %+121 %+30.6 %+88.4 %+8.9 %
18/02/2019 00Z-65.2 %+25.9 %-48.3 %-17.7 %-75 %-56 %-88.7 %
17/02/2019 18Z+135.4 %-25.9 %+66.5 %+44.6 %+82.1 %+105.3 %+61.5 %
17/02/2019 12Z+33.3 %+13 %+93.7 %+37.8 %-1.5 %+50.4 %+9.4 %
17/02/2019 06Z+19.1 %+91.3 %+4.4 %+20.4 %-56.2 %+20.8 %-10.8 %
17/02/2019 00Z-46.7 %-23.9 %+43.1 %+33.2 %-72.8 %-48.9 %-67.4 %
16/02/2019 18Z-3.3 %+43 %+32 %+3 %-36.5 %-4.8 %-47.9 %
16/02/2019 12Z+102.4 %+55.9 %+93.2 %+30 %+25.1 %+25.6 %-43.3 %
16/02/2019 06Z+44.9 %+264.9 %+151.4 %+67.6 %+15.2 %+120.8 %+12.7 %
16/02/2019 00Z+82.4 %-14.2 %+230.3 %+56.2 %+67 %+171.5 %+76.4 %
15/02/2019 18Z+89 %-34.1 %+53.8 %+41.7 %+76.7 %+73.1 %+47.4 %
15/02/2019 12Z+50.6 %-60.5 %+8.1 %+38.9 %+72.6 %+43.6 %+1.3 %
15/02/2019 06Z+48.2 %-40.7 %+40.1 %-9.1 %+36.9 %+26 %-0.2 %
15/02/2019 00Z+61.5 %+7.1 %+38.5 %+71.8 %+57.8 %+83.2 %+30 %
14/02/2019 18Z+52.5 %-81.3 %+0.6 %+51.1 %+123.8 %+36 %+58 %
14/02/2019 12Z+59.9 %-40 %+25.3 %-2.8 %-23.6 %+51.7 %+0.7 %
14/02/2019 06Z-19.3 %+2.5 %-9.1 %+5.6 %-16.7 %-21.1 %-41.4 %
14/02/2019 00Z+132.2 %+63.3 %+83.1 %+119.3 %+111 %+124.6 %+40.3 %
13/02/2019 18Z+101.3 %+51.5 %+128.2 %+44.5 %+46.7 %+69.5 %-30 %
13/02/2019 12Z-66.1 %+182.3 %-4.7 %-44 %-61.2 %-8.3 %-59 %
13/02/2019 06Z-24.1 %-10.4 %-11.7 %-31 %-13.4 %+5.7 %-24.6 %
13/02/2019 00Z-8.1 %+121.2 %+33.9 %-36.5 %-26.2 %+67.3 %-15.8 %
12/02/2019 18Z+44 %+121.7 %+103.8 %+54.1 %+37 %+108 %+3.6 %
12/02/2019 12Z-11.7 %+34.8 %+60.5 %+1.1 %-9.8 %+32.7 %-16.3 %
Moyenne+35.4 %+31 %+52.4 %+24.4 %+12 %+47.6 %-6.1 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
19/02/2019 18Z-8.3 hPa-7.5 hPa-10.1 hPa-10.2 hPa-7.9 hPa-8.3 hPa-7.5 hPa
19/02/2019 12Z-2.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.5 hPa-1.3 hPa-2 hPa
19/02/2019 06Z+1.2 hPa+1.1 hPa-3.3 hPa-1.4 hPa+3.8 hPa+0 hPa+2.7 hPa
19/02/2019 00Z+0.7 hPa-1.6 hPa+0.6 hPa+2.5 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.4 hPa
18/02/2019 18Z-2.8 hPa+0.6 hPa-1.4 hPa-4.3 hPa-3.8 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.6 hPa
18/02/2019 12Z-1 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.3 hPa-2.2 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa-0.5 hPa
18/02/2019 06Z-7 hPa-2.1 hPa-5.3 hPa-9.8 hPa-7.3 hPa-4 hPa-4.8 hPa
18/02/2019 00Z+0.6 hPa+0.8 hPa-3.8 hPa-2 hPa+2.5 hPa-0.5 hPa+1.4 hPa
17/02/2019 18Z-4.8 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.3 hPa-4.3 hPa-4.7 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.3 hPa
17/02/2019 12Z-5.3 hPa-7.2 hPa-5.8 hPa-5.3 hPa-3.9 hPa-6.5 hPa-5.5 hPa
17/02/2019 06Z-12 hPa-10.4 hPa-14.4 hPa-14.4 hPa-10.2 hPa-11.8 hPa-11.1 hPa
17/02/2019 00Z-6 hPa-5.7 hPa-8 hPa-8 hPa-4 hPa-6.7 hPa-5.2 hPa
16/02/2019 18Z-1.4 hPa+0.5 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.2 hPa+0.1 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.2 hPa
16/02/2019 12Z-6.4 hPa-3.4 hPa-7.9 hPa-7.7 hPa-5.2 hPa-5.4 hPa-4.9 hPa
16/02/2019 06Z-11.4 hPa-8.8 hPa-10.1 hPa-12.2 hPa-11.1 hPa-9.9 hPa-10.5 hPa
16/02/2019 00Z-6.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-4.5 hPa-6.7 hPa-6.4 hPa-4.5 hPa-5.5 hPa
15/02/2019 18Z-4 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.9 hPa-5.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-4 hPa
15/02/2019 12Z-2.3 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.9 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.5 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.8 hPa
15/02/2019 06Z+0.1 hPa+1.9 hPa+1 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.9 hPa
15/02/2019 00Z-3 hPa+0 hPa-2.2 hPa-4.6 hPa-3.6 hPa-1 hPa-1.7 hPa
14/02/2019 18Z+-0 hPa+3.6 hPa+2.7 hPa-1 hPa-1.9 hPa+2.9 hPa+0.7 hPa
14/02/2019 12Z-1.5 hPa-2.1 hPa-3 hPa-3.3 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-0.9 hPa
14/02/2019 06Z+0.3 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.3 hPa
14/02/2019 00Z-9.7 hPa-2.8 hPa-6.8 hPa-12.6 hPa-11 hPa-5.1 hPa-7.3 hPa
13/02/2019 18Z-10.4 hPa-8.5 hPa-10.5 hPa-11.1 hPa-9.6 hPa-9.4 hPa-9.5 hPa
13/02/2019 12Z-2.9 hPa-7.6 hPa-5.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.2 hPa-6.3 hPa-4.6 hPa
13/02/2019 06Z-4.1 hPa-6.9 hPa-6.3 hPa-2.7 hPa-3.1 hPa-6 hPa-5 hPa
13/02/2019 00Z-0.4 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.5 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.9 hPa
12/02/2019 18Z-6.2 hPa-4.7 hPa-5.6 hPa-7 hPa-6.2 hPa-5.7 hPa-5.4 hPa
12/02/2019 12Z-3 hPa-4.8 hPa-3.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-2.7 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.6 hPa
Moyenne-4 hPa-2.8 hPa-4.2 hPa-4.8 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.5 hPa-3.4 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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